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[T.S.R:18279] India: Growing Comfort With Leverage (Credit Suisse)

2012-01-29T05:17:00.001-08:00

Key themes

Buoyant outlook and .small town. optimism

The Indian consumer displays relatively broad-based optimism across the range of income

brackets. Households, on average, expect income growth to double next year, while more

than 70% find the current environment conducive for making major purchases. Smaller

cities are the most optimistic. They also display greater inclination to purchase big-ticket

items. Being relatively insulated from global volatility, they have outperformed larger cities

in terms of growth and could continue to do so. First mover advantage is huge. Companies

with the right products, brands and deep sales/service roots can best capture growth in

these cities. Maruti Suzuki, Hero Honda and Bharti Airtel are the best ways to play this

theme, in our view, given their market leadership (higher share in smaller cities), focus on

semi-urban/rural consumers and wide distribution reach. In the near term, Bharti and Hero

Honda look the most attractive and are similarly placed, with concerns on market share

and margins set to ease in the next few quarters.

Growing comfort with leverage

Indian consumer balance sheets are still significantly underleveraged. However, we see

an increased appetite for credit in big-ticket purchases such as property and cars. Growing

comfort with debt will have an obvious impact on the savings culture . which tends to

decline as economies mature. Financial sophistication will increase as companies widen

their portfolio of products, improve service levels and expand reach. We expect greater

scrutiny at lower income levels and stringent regulations as the government watches out

for consumers. well-being. We like HDFC Bank for its stronger-than-industry credit growth

combined with declining credit costs leading to rising RoEs. It is also well placed in a rising

rate environment with CASA share at 51% and low leverage to treasury.

Focus on value proposition, even as Indians uptrade

While there is a gradual trend of uptrading within automobiles, we find Indian consumers

excessively focused on .value for money.. Image (prestige) and power performance seem

to matter the least. A tough combination of better but reasonably priced cars means India

is not a plug-and-play market. Incumbents with the best cost structure and right products

would benefit the most. New entrants would need to go through investment cycle of setting

up / expanding manufacturing facility within India in order to become profitable. We believe

Maruti is best positioned to cater to the unique needs of the Indian consumer, aided by

strong brands, an efficient cost structure and a wide sales network. We note that despite a

jump in competitive intensity over the last 12 months, market share loss for Maruti has

been negligible (about 100 bp YTD). While our concern on the influence of the parent

company (royalty, currency exposure, export strategy) remains, we believe Maruti is the

best way to play the domestic car market in the near-to-long term horizon.

Education is a key priority

Education is a priority that stands out for the Indian consumer. The allocation of existing

spending is by far the highest at around 7.5% among the countries surveyed. Government

focus on higher education (graduate /post-graduate) has lead to an inverted pyramid

structure in the quality of state education in India. A huge opportunity lies in the underserved

K-12 system (kindergarten to higher secondary). Increasing penetration as well as

innovation in teaching techniques together offer significant potential. In this space, we

highlight Everonn as our top pick. Everonn is differentiated from competitors in the sector

from its end-to-end value positioning. At 10.5x FY3/12 P/E for a three-year EPS CAGR of

about 45%, we find the stock attractively valued. While education is a multi-year theme,

we see short-term catalysts in the form of strong growth and school/college additions in

the December 2010 and March 2011 quarters for Everonn.

Safe Harbor Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.

Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

--
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[T.S.R:18278] Credit Suisse-Key Themes From 7 Emerging Markets

2012-01-29T05:09:00.000-08:00

Key themes from the seven

emerging markets

We summarise our findings from our consumer survey into eight broad issues:

1) Confidence is high.
The survey as a whole reveals consumers in the emerging world

as relatively confident on their outlook for the year ahead, particularly in China and Brazil.

2) The shift towards discretionary spending continues.
Demand for essential items

after increasing rapidly tends to stagnate in favour of more discretionary items. Consistent

with this, we find the greatest proportion of spending planned on discretionary items

occurs in relatively rich markets (Saudi Arabia), while spending on essential items is a

major feature of poorer markets (India, Indonesia, Egypt).

3) Inequality of income.
Uneven income distribution across all these markets skews this

headline result on essential relative to discretionary spending on goods and services.

Combining data from the Credit Suisse Global Wealth report with data from our survey we

calculate the absolute and relative distribution of households that fit into comparable

income bands across each market. Given their sheer size, China and India. The number of

high income households in India earning greater than US$2,000 per month, for instance, is

more than twice that of Russia despite GDP per capita 80% lower than Russia.

4) Real income growth.
Our survey data reveals the detail behind the aggregates:

interestingly, we find that income disparities . that are already wide . are set to increase

as the high income brackets have seen, and are expected to continue to see, much

greater growth. Two broad conclusions: a) over the next year, absolute growth rates look

likely to be best supported at the discretionary end of spending; and b) essential goods

and services look set to achieve better

relative growth in Indonesia, China and Brazil.
5) International versus local brands.
In line with the transition from essential items

towards discretionary spending, the survey also shows there is a clear and consistent

pattern in consumption of branded goods as income levels improve. International brands

have the upper hand in the premium ratings (cars, perfume and fashion), for essentials

(such as bottled water and dairy products), the preference for international brands over

local brands is not particularly strong.

6) Public versus private: healthcare and education.
Aggregate average household

expenditure on healthcare and education is very different when compared across markets.

For example, household expenditure on healthcare in Brazil (9.8% of income) is nearly

twice that of China, at 5.7%. Demographics, public sector expenditure as well as social

and cultural influences help explain the differences. The survey shows that healthcare

spending intentions over the next 12 months are most positive for China, Brazil and

Russia.

7) Consumption map.
In order to draw together some of these different ideas and themes

we present the .Emerging Market Consumption Map. (see pages 10-17). This summarises

spending intentions across 14 different types of goods and services for different income

groups across the seven markets. The ongoing strength of demand and real income

growth in China sees healthy demand across the broadest basket of spending. Brazil also

sees a degree of breadth but the focus is towards the genuinely discretionary end.

8) Credit, savings and investment.
Finally, we consider some of the financial aspects of

changing consumption patterns. We note the substantial structural differences in the

savings culture across these markets. China and India both exhibit strong savings cultures,

Brazilian households prefer to spend rather than save. The outlook for credit growth

appears to be strong: plans for mortgage-backed property purchases are positive across

the board (particularly strong in Indonesia, China and Brazil) as are plans for creditfinanced

vehicle purchases (a notable feature in Saudi Arabia and Brazil).

Safe Harbor Statement:

Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

[T.S.R:18277] India-Cyclical Gains Ahead (Citi)

2012-01-29T04:47:00.001-08:00

After a dismal 2011, MSCI India has had a strong start to the year, up 17.1% YTD, meaningfully out-performing regional peers and even other BRIC and most other high-beta markets. This, in many ways, is the opposite of the market's 2011 start, when it fell and under-performed peers sharply, in January, which then continued for the rest of the year.

In our view, last year's selloff – particularly in November and December - was overdone. MSCI India fell 21% in the final two months of 2011, the worst performance among all EM countries, while the Rupee followed suit (exacerbating the declines in the dollar MSCI index), and was down over 18% from its peak at one point in time.

Certainly, the static economic and political decision-making environment proved a significant overhang on an already weak market. Growth expectations for 2011 slipped from 8%+ to sub 7%, while interest rates were hiked 13 times in the tightening cycle that continued until December, which also

contributed to weaker markets.

So far this year, India has outperformed partly because the market is coming off a low base, while the global risk environment has improved – equity markets across the world have bounced back (MSCI ACWorld +5.2% YTD).

Furthermore, India's year-to-date outperformance likely reflects a mix of subsiding WPI inflation (down by 160bps to 7.5% in December), expectations that interest rates will be cut sooner than later (boosted also by the unexpected cut in reserve requirements on January 24), and that downward earnings revisions appear to have bottomed out (see Figure 34 below) for the time being.

Safe Harbor Statement:

Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

[T.S.R:18276] [Team Stock Researchers Pvt. Ltd.] 1/27/2012 08:01:00 PM

2012-01-27T06:31:00.000-08:00

Nifty EOD Chart 26 JANUARY 2012

RELIANCE EOD CHART 2012

TATAMOTORS EOD CHART 27 JAN 2012

--
Posted By Laloo Laal to Team Stock Researchers Pvt. Ltd. at 1/27/2012 08:01:00 PM

[T.S.R:18275] City Union Bank-Strong Shareholders

2012-01-26T23:39:00.000-08:00

1	Life Insurance Corporation of India	19,950,000	4.90	-	-	-	-	-
2	L & T Capital Holdings Ltd	19,195,012	4.71	-	-	-	-	-
3	Nederlandse Finnancierings Maatschappij Voor Ontwik	18,750,000	4.60	-	-	-	-	-
4	Argonaut Ventures	18,232,474	4.48	-	-	-	-	-
5	Acacia Partners LP	12,171,162	2.99	-	-	-	-	-
6	Ares Investments	10,425,000	2.56	-	-	-	-	-
7	Vilasini Vaidyanathan	10,000,000	2.45	-	-	-	-	-
8	Wasatch Core Growth Fund	7,941,426	1.95	-	-	-	-	-
9	Emblem FII	6,950,000	1.71	-	-	-	-	-
10	Meenakshi V	6,500,000	1.60	-	-	-	-	-
11	ING Vysya Life Insurance Company Ltd	5,321,882	1.31	-	-	-	-	-
12	Sriram V	4,875,000	1.20	-	-	-	-	-
13	Padma V	4,787,500	1.18	-	-	-	-	-
14	Vaidyanathan P	4,787,500	1.18	-	-	-	-	-
15	Shriram Chits Pvt Ltd	4,116,728	1.01	-	-	-	-	-
	Total	154,003,684	37.81	-	-	-	-	-

Safe Harbor Statement:

Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

[T.S.R:18274] Wasatch Emerging India Opportunities Fund

2012-01-26T21:54:00.001-08:00

FYI

[T.S.R:18273] BUYING IN CLARIS LIFE

2012-01-26T20:31:00.001-08:00

CLARIS LIFESCIENCES LTD.

Scrip Code : 533288					Quarter ending : December 2011

Shareholding of securities (including shares, warrants, convertible securities) of persons belonging to the category "Public" and holding more than 1% of the total number of shares

Sr. No.	Name of the Shareholder	No. of Shares held	Shares as % of Total No. of Shares	Details of warrants		Details of convertible securities		Total shares (including underlying shares assuming full conversion of warrants and convertible securities) as a % of diluted share capital
Sr. No.	Name of the Shareholder	No. of Shares held	Shares as % of Total No. of Shares	Number of warrants held	As a % total number of warrants of the same class	Number of convertible securities held	% w.r.t total number of convertible securities of the same class
1	First Carlyle Ventures III	7,111,095	11.14	0	0.00	0	0.00	0.00
2	Tree Line Asia Master Fund (Singapore) Pte Ltd	1,920,254	3.01	0	0.00	0	0.00	0.00
3	Citigroup Global Markets Mauritus Pvt Ltd	800,046	1.25	0	0.00	0	0.00	0.00
4	Indian Capital Pte Ltd A/c Indea Long	1,000,000	1.57	0	0.00	0	0.00	0.00
5	Max New York Life Insurance Company Ltd	1,405,000	2.20	0	0.00	0	0.00	0.00
6	Copthall Mauritius Investment Ltd	1,240,104	1.94	0	0.00	0	0.00	0.00
	Total	13,476,499	21.12	0	0.00	0	0.00	0.00

[T.S.R:18272] City Union Bank To Announce Rights Issue On Jan31

2012-01-26T20:20:00.000-08:00

City Union Bank To Announce Rights Issue On Jan31

City Union Bank Ltd has informed BSE that a meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank will be held on January 31, 2012, inter alia, to consider and approve the Unaudited Financial Results of the Bank for the quarter ended December 31, 2011, and also to consider the proposal for initiating the formalities and procedures for Rights Issues subject to the applicable laws and regulations including RBI & SEBI Guidelines.

[T.S.R:18271] [Team Stock Researchers Pvt. Ltd.] TSR : NiftyViews and Stock view for 27 JAN '12

2012-01-26T19:44:00.001-08:00

NIFTY FUTURE GAVE FANTASTIC UP MOVE ABOVE 5077 LEVEL .

RESISTANCE FOR TODAY IS 5248-52 RANGE. IF WE SUSTAIN ABOVE THIS LEVEL DO NOT GO SHORT. IF POSITIONAL SUSTAINING ABOVE 5252 FOR MORE THAN 2-3 DAYS WE CAN SEE ANOTHER BREAKOUT TILL 5388 LEVEL IIN COMING DAYS.

TREND IS POSITIVE. SUPPORT AT 5200 FOR TODAY. AND BELOW THAT 5177 WILL ACT AS STOPLOSS LEVEL.

MAGIC NUMBERS : 5178-5222-5252-5277

TREND POSITIVE.

STOCK TO WATCH : CANARA BANK , LIC HOUSING. STAY ONLINE AT WWW.NIFTYVIEWS.COM WE MAY GIVE FREE VIEWS THERE IN CHAT ROOM THERE.

--
Posted By ~~ мιтs ™ ~~ to Team Stock Researchers Pvt. Ltd. at 1/27/2012 09:14:00 AM

[T.S.R:18270] Buy Silver Above $ 36/oz

2012-01-25T19:55:00.000-08:00

Back in 1995, when I ran the giant precious-metals trading business at the Phibro division of Salomon Brothers, silver wasn't just cheap - it was the Rodney Dangerfield of the commodities market.

Back then, silver "got no respect." It was trading under $5 an ounce, and traders would say: "You can never be short enough silver."

Other traders called silver a "barbarous relic."

But back then, the metal was not regarded as precious and, the fundamentals were weak, thanks to the Hunt brothers, the billionaires who tried and failed to manipulate and corner the world silver market during the late 1970s.

At the same time, the industrial use of silver was in decline - largely because of new technology in photography.

But even then, I saw something positive and interesting going on amid all the weakness and pessimism.

I, along with three other traders at Phibro, took a significant position in silver. We bought a little over $1 billion worth of the metal. We went long 265 million ounces. It's a hell of a story, but one for another day.

Suffice to say, that kind of stash today would cost almost $9 billion!

Fast forward 17 years and the price of silver is almost nine times higher.

When the silver market peaked last year at above $49, the CME and CFTC raised margins on this metal that had by now become "precious" and the price tanked an astonishing 33% in two short weeks!

The silver market then dropped again. By September, it traded down to just above $26, transforming this now precious metal back into an industrial metal.

Silver Exploded and Plummeted in 2011

Before silver tanked, it ran up from $28 at the start of 2011 to more than $49 in March. When the CME raised margins, they forced many long positions to exit the market as the cost of holding a position became prohibitive.

There has since been a sharp correction in the silver price, and the once-precious metal has behaved in a way normally associated with 'industrial' commodities.

Ever since silver tanked, its close relationship with gold has all but disappeared.

Silver fundamentals are great but, as an industrial metal, the price ain't cheap...

Since 2000, photographic demand for the metal has dropped by 65%, but its application in technology - such as the use of silver in cell phones and computers - has increased by 40%.

At the same, however, investment demand has increased by 480% - thanks to growing global deficits and the declining value of paper money.

The demand for silver has exploded since I bought that monster position back in 1995.

What Will Get Silver Going Again?

Silver has taken a breather since last April. The price has now corrected and many 'weak' holders of the commodity have sold their holdings. Open interest (the total number of long and short positions in silver futures contracts) has dropped by 50% since April of last year.

Unfortunately, silver will not go back down to the cheap level where I was able to buy boatloads of it in 1995. But, the time is coming close when we will be able to jump back onto the band wagon.

Silver will soon change back into a precious metal. When it does, the prices will make the next leg up in the multi-year bull market and the tarnish of the second part of last year will disappear quickly.

Last year's sharp decline chased many investors away from the market.

But just as silver began to glimmer in my eyes in 1995, it has begun to look very shiny to me again today.

A Silver Bonanza in 2012

I believe silver will climb higher in 2012. And the drivers will be massive deficits, weaker paper currencies and the demand for hard assets.

I would not be surprised to see silver trade up to $75 over the course of the next year.

But before its ascent begins, the price must erase the technical damage done last year.

Long-term resistance for silver stands at $36 an ounce. Once prices break above this level and hold, the sky is the limit and silver will once again act and trade like the precious metal that it is.

That's when silver will once again become gold's little brother.

How to Play the Market

There are many ways to participate in the next leg up in this exciting and volatile market. Be prepared to buy silver on a break above $36.

Silver options and futures are traded on the COMEX division of the CME. And there are silver stocks, such as Silver Wheaton (SLW), as well as silver coins and bars, which are available from reputable coins dealers and banks such as EverBank.

Silver promises to shine once again in 2012. Keep your eye on this precious metal because once it gets going it will not take any prisoners!

Happy trade hunting..

Safe Harbor Statement:

Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

[T.S.R:18269] [Team Stock Researchers Pvt. Ltd.] 1/25/2012 07:37:00 PM

2012-01-25T06:07:00.001-08:00

Nifty EOD Chart 25 JANUARY 2012

RELIANCE EOD CHART 25 JAN 2012

TATAMOTORS EOD CHART 25 JAN 2012

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Posted By Laloo Laal to Team Stock Researchers Pvt. Ltd. at 1/25/2012 07:37:00 PM

[T.S.R:18268] BL Kashyap-We Build Your World, Target Rs 20

2012-01-24T19:58:00.001-08:00

BL Kashyap-We Build Your World

BUY with a target of Rs 20.

BL Kashyap recorded consolidated turnover of Rs.1594.88 Crore during FY11, an increase by 50.46% over last year. Profit prior to taxes was Rs. 75.52 Crores up by 33.01 % while Profit after taxes was 48.38 Crores up by 20.57 Today, the company sells for a market cap of a mere Rs 200 crore, which is less than half it's Book Value.

BL Kashyap constructs all types of buildings: Corporate Headquarters, Research And Development Complexes, Educational Campuses, Healthcare Facilities, Hotels / Conference Centers, Multi-family Residential Developments, Retail Malls And Lifestyle Centers, Government Buildings, Bridges, Airports etc. The Company has completed more than 28 projects in last year with clients including M/s HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd., M/s Toyota Kirloskar Motor Pvt. Ltd., M/s Bennett Coleman & Co. Ltd., M/s Delhi Metro Rail Corporation Ltd., and M/s Indian Oil Corporation Ltd.

The Company has embarked on various new assignments, which are stepping stone, for a big leap towards getting many more such critically important projects, which would go in the overall growth of the Company and its profile. The year in perspective is important for the reason that there has been significant shift in the overall project profiling so as to de-risk the over dependence on limited sector specific Industries. A point in comparison is 20% of the total order book is from the Central Government sector.

The success of the Company is directly attributable to its dedicated staff, who have accumulated the knowledge and experience necessary in the commercial construction marketplace, by combining the best technical resources with the most experienced personnel in the region, BLK has built a tradition of quality work delivered on time, within budget. The formula for the Company's success is built upon an aggressive business strategy that focuses on the core competencies of fast track construction, high quality finishes. Our project teams work with clients to identify critical issues and accordingly programme the execution needs and then seek to exceed the customers' expectations.

The continued growth of India's middle class and the ongoing development of tier two and tier three cities as a result of urbanization suggest that higher demand for the Company's construction services will remain strong in the coming periods. Over the longer term, the Company believes that its growth will be driven by expanding its reach in tier-two and tier-three cities and increasing focus on specialist construction projects, which the Company believes will deliver higher profit margins.

As a part of this new strategic direction, the Company plans to upgrade its qualification and engineering standards to ensure that it can tap into this growing market potential. The majority of the new opportunities will be in infrastructure, versus previously when real estate was the driving force in the construction market. This causes a tremendous need for skilled and unskilled labour to man these projects, still the demand for the residential units, driven by the high growth rate in the Indian economy and rapid urbanization, is expected to be strong in the medium term. However the absorption rate is likely to slowed down over the near term on account of the strong increase in residential unit prices and withdrawal of teaser interest rate by the banks and other lenders and increase in interest rates..

[T.S.R:18267] Hind Dorr Oliver-Order Books Fill Up

2012-01-24T19:50:00.000-08:00

Hindustan Dorr Oliver-Order Books Fill Up

HDO has bagged an order from Nuclear Power Corporation for supply of
equipments-accumulators, tanks, moderators and structures for the Kakrapar
Atomic Power Plant-Unit 3 and 4. The equipment would be produced at HDO's
facility at Vatva, with delivery scheduled in 15 months and 21 months for
the two units.

In addition, HDO has bagged an order from GAIL for their offsite at their
petrochemical complex in Vijaypur. The completion period is 16 months.

HDO has received an order from BPCL for it's OSBL, area of CCR/NHT project
at Mahad.

Davy Markham, the WOS of HDO has bagged orders worth 18.3 mn pounds from
Opinaca Mines, Sheffield Forgemaster and Brighton Energy Corp. In all the
first lot of the orders works out to over Rs 200 crore for HDO.

Meanwhile repeat orders worth Rs 55 crore have been received from NPCIL for
supply of Emergency Condensors, D2O Exchangers for the KAPP project Gujarat
and the Rawatbhata Atomic Plant, Rajasthan.

In it's international foray HDO has recieved a turnkey order from the
Konkola Copper Mines located at Chingola, Zambia. The order worth roughly
Rs 500 crore taps into HDOs existing skill set of providing project
management, engineering, procurement and construction services in the
mineral and metals recovery process including processing, smelting,
refining.

HDO is a pioneer in this field have supplied equipment to all Alumina
refineries in India and in the Uranium sector it is currently building a
Greenfield ore mining and processing facility of 3000 TPD in AP for the
Uranium Corp Of India.

Finally, in it's latest order win-HDO will be providing a Effluent
Collection and Treatment System for Ongc, at it's greenfield petrochem mega
project at Dahej SEZ. Smaller order including the Rs 170 order from Ongc,
include supply of Waste Heat Recovery System to ACC, an ore beneficiation
facility for NMDC and a Heavy Water Upgradation facility for NPCIL.

The total order book now stands over Rs 2000 crore, executable over the next 18 months.

[T.S.R:18266] India Real Estate-Southern Sirens Call (Credit Suisse)

2012-01-24T18:31:00.001-08:00

Assuming coverage of India property: prefer south-based developers.

We assume coverage of the India real estate sector with OUTPERFORM

ratings on Sobha Developers, Oberoi and Prestige Estates. We prefer stocks

with exposure to property markets with lower investor participation (south

India), falling inventory levels in office, and ability to re-lever balance sheets in

the current down-cycle. We recommend looking at through-cycle average

ROEs for the longer term; stocks with lower delta of near-term ROE to longerterm

average (such as Sobha) appear good multiple re-rating candidates.

■

Cyclical indicators suggest fundamentals nearing trough. We develop a

framework to assess developer cash flow cycles; indicators such as liquidity

(rate cycle), gearing and volume (inventory overhang) suggest an impending

price cut in the residential segment, which could positively impact developer

cash flows. Tactically, price cuts, rate cycle and asset sales could serve as

inflection points (sentiment drivers) for sector outperformance.

■

What's new in the report? Analysis of RBI data suggests mortgage

additions in key metros across India have been stagnant since March 2007.

Investors contribute highly to total absorption of properties more than Rs3.5

mn. Avoid investor driven markets as cash flows dry up during tight liquidity.

Office occupancies appear to trough in 2H FY13E and Bengaluru appears

better positioned for a recovery. Rising inventory overhang and tightening

liquidity present a strong case for price cuts, a key inflection point.

[T.S.R:18265] Silver Should Take Out USd 50/oz and Zoom!

2012-01-24T13:45:00.000-08:00

The price of a good often behaves in a similar manner at or around the same kind of milestone. An example of such a milestone could be a significant top. Price often forms a similar type of pattern at different significant tops – different in terms of time of occurrence. This is a reflection of how market participants themselves often behave in a similar manner when faced with the same kind of situation. This of course makes perfect sense, since it is normal, for example, to rest after you have been extremely busy for a while. For most people, this is true whether it was yesterday, or in 20 years.

In the current silver market, there are some similarities as compared with the 1970s. There are also things that are much different today, in the economic landscape, compared with that of the 1970s. One of the significant things that is different now is the fact that debt levels, relative to GDP, are extremely high compared with the seventies.

In my opinion, this is one of the main reasons why we are likely to have a massive Depression this time around.

Here, I would like to illustrate how the silver price behaves in a similar manner, today, compared with the 1970s. Below is a graphic that compares the silver price chart of January 1978—August 1979 to the period from January 2009—present (charts generated at barchart.com, CLICK TO ENLARGE):

I chose these timeframes because price broke out of the significant high (for the relevant decade) around these periods. I have drawn a blue line at the level of the relevant significant high.

Note how the run-up to the blue line is visually similar in both cases. After going through the blue line, price rallied significantly until it peaked at point b (in both cases). It then corrected/consolidated forming a flag/pennant type formation.

Note that in the 70s and in the current chart, price corrected to just above the blue line. It does not mean it cannot still move to the blue line, since, to stay valid, it just needs to stay at or above the blue line. Note that, currently, I do not see any evidence that we will still go lower than the $26 level.

The comparison suggests that we should now rally towards point d and eventually go higher than point b ($50).

The flag pattern formed currently is significantly bigger (in price movement) relative to that of the 1970s. This is possibly indicating that this fractal pattern is growing significantly, which could mean, going forward, bigger price increases relative to the price increases of the 1970s.

The move from point a to point b, on the bottom chart, was remarkable. It took silver from about $17.50 to about $50, a 185% increase. Compare that to the 1970s move of 33.33% (from about $6 to $8). To me, this signals that silver has changed gears (big-time) relative to the 1970s.

Below is a graphic that compares the silver chart (from 2007 to today), to the gold chart (from 2008 to 2010) (all charts generated at fxstreet.com, CLICK TO ENLARGE):

The top chart is for gold and the bottom is for silver. I have highlighted how similar patterns exist on both charts. On both charts are ascending triangles, out of which price broke out to the upside. After the breakout, price increased significantly from where both formed a consolidation pattern.

The ascending triangle for silver (roughly 30 months) is much bigger than that of gold (roughly 19 months). The consolidation patterns for both charts took roughly the same amount of time to form, relative to their ascending triangles (about half the time of the triangles).

Based on this comparison, it would seem that silver was at point 0 on 29 December 2011, and it is now busy making its way toward the blue line and will eventually pass the $50 level, just like the comparison to the 70s chart suggest.

Also, if you compare the price movement for silver after it broke out of the triangle to that of gold's movement, you will notice that there is a huge difference. Gold moved from about $1000 to $1227 (a 22.7% increase), whereas silver moved from about $21 to about $50 (a 138% increase). This, to me, says that there is a massive amount of energy underlying the silver market, and when it is ready to unleash, we will see price/value increases that will stun even the most ardent silverbugs.

The kind of movement we've seen since silver has moved out of the triangle is normally associated with moves at the end of a big move. So, either that move was the end of silver's big move, or it was just an unusually big beginning of a really big move, which suggests we will have an unusually big end of a big move (still to come). Again, I see no evidence to suggest that anything we've seen so far was the end of the silver bull market, so I am expecting the latter (i.e. a very powerful upleg yet to unfold).

The real power of this expected move is likely to be released only some time after price has surpassed the $50 level.

Safe Harbor Statement:

Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

[T.S.R:18264] India-Iran Oil Trade in Gold, Not USD?

2012-01-24T13:29:00.000-08:00

That's right. Both India and Iran are ditching the traditional dollar currency in favor of trading with the precious-metal safe haven.

Journalists speculate that the move is "an attempt to work around the sanctions imposed by the United States and Europe over Iran's alleged nuclear programme."

This transaction wasn't an easy one, as oil is priced in U.S. dollars.

Therefore, two big banks had to mediate the ordeal between the two parties: India's state-owned UCO Bank and Turkey's state-owned Halkbank helped ensure a smooth and legal transaction between Iran and India...

Both banks don't have any business with the US and therefore are less vulnerable to sanctions. According to the report, an Indian delegation has spent time in Tehran and finalized the details of the transactions.

The annual capacity of trade between these two countries is 12 billion dollars. With gold trading at around $1668, that is around 7.2 million ounces of gold.

This happened shortly after Iran and Russia announced they would trade using their own domestic currencies as opposed to the U.S. dollar.

EU officials recently announced an "oil embargo on Iran" beginning on July 1st.

Consequently, tension is steadily rising in relations between the West and Iran...

Oil is steadily rising as well.

The embargo agreement means any bank dealing with Iran would be unauthorized to participate in transactions associated with American or European financial institutions.

India's choice to pay for Iranian oil with gold with push gold even higher — while keeping the value of the dollar on a steady decline.

Safe Harbor Statement:

Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

[T.S.R:18263] [Team Stock Researchers Pvt. Ltd.] 1/24/2012 07:49:00 PM

2012-01-24T06:19:00.000-08:00

Nifty EOD Chart 24 JANUARY 2012

RELIANCE EOD CHART 24 JAN 2012

TATAMOTORS EOD CHART 24 JAN 2012

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Posted By Laloo Laal to Team Stock Researchers Pvt. Ltd. at 1/24/2012 07:49:00 PM

[T.S.R:18262] Banks-CRR Cut, Increased NRE Deposits Structurally Positive

2012-01-24T01:25:00.000-08:00

Over the past few days, leading banks have raised NRE term deposit rates

by 450bps
‐550bps to 8.25%‐9.25% in response to the recently announced

deregulation of NRE/NRO deposit rates. We believe structural upward

movement in non‐resident rates will impact banks funding costs

(particularly regional banks like Federal, South Indian, etc which have

relatively higher proportion of these deposits). However, any adverse

impact on funding cost may not be immediate as currently rates have

been revised significantly only for NRE term deposits (constituting 2‐3% of

the total deposits for Federal and South Indian Bank). The recent rate hike

for NRE term deposits by leading banks implies that this source is no

longer a low cost deposit option. Moreover, once savings deposit rates on

domestic front is revised, we will see NRE/NRO savings deposit rates also

following suit.

Leading banks raise NRE TD rates to 8.25%

‐9.25%

RBI recently deregulated interest rates on NRE (Non

‐resident External) savings and

term deposits (TD) (maturity over one year) and NRO (Ordinary Non‐Resident) savings

deposits. NRO term deposits were already deregulated and FCNR deposit rate

continues to be regulated. Over the past few days, leading banks like SBI and PNB

among others have increased NRE TD rates by ~450bps‐550bps to 8.25%‐9.25% for

maturity of one to two years (now comparable with domestic TD rates). Since rates for

non‐resident (NR) deposits cannot be higher than domestic rates, NR saving rates

though deregulated remain unchanged at 4%. However, we believe that once savings

deposit rates on domestic front get revised, we will see NRE/NRO savings deposit rates

also being revised upwards. Rupee depreciation coupled with attractive rates now on

offer will witness significant inflows under these channels (although on a small base) for

the banking industry.

Limited near term impact; structural long term implications

At an industry level, NR deposits constitute only 4.3% of the total deposits (as on FY11)

and impact of deregulation will not be more than 10bps on cost of funds. The fact that

revised higher rates are applicable for fresh deposits also comes to the immediate aid.

Besides, current regulations do not allow interest payment if TDs are withdrawn before

a year; this will prohibit depositors from withdrawing existing TDs.

For Federal Bank and South Indian Bank with NR deposits forming 20% and 13% of total

deposits respectively, the impact of deregulation can be 20

‐25bps on funding cost over

a medium term (assuming 200bps increase in savings rate). While the near term impact

for these regional banks is limited at 10

‐12bps due to rate increase on NRE TD (forming

~2.3% of total deposits). Any structural rise in savings rate for NR deposits (following

hike in domestic savings rate) can impact their funding cost to the tune of 10

‐15bps

Safe Harbor Statement:

Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

[T.S.R:18261] United Bank-BUY

2012-01-23T22:55:00.000-08:00

United Bank-BUY
3Q earnings are expected to be fairly healthy notwithstanding the poor stock sentiment and overhang of asset quality and growth issues. Balance sheet growth is likely to be 3-4% sequentially and margins too are likely to improve sequentially as the base rate hikes of July take full impact and lower slippages should take away less from interest income as system-based NPL recognition no longer remains an overhang.

PSU banks are likely to fare well at the operating profit level (15% y/y growth) given
better margins. However, 33% y/y increase in provisions is likely to translate into 12% net profit growth. On a sequential basis however, provisions are likely to be lower (for reasons mentioned above) propping up net profit growth by 19%. PVT banks are likely to fare almost equally well as their PSU peers except that provisioning pressure isn't likely to be as much leading to 20% y/y net profit growth.

Margins & Asset quality: We are likely at near peak margin levels this and next quarter
after which any rate cuts would likely impact loan yields quicker than deposit costs. Also, we may see improved NPL recoveries and optically lower slippages particularly at PSU banks as system-recognition of NPLs ended in Sep11. However, we see the scope of increasing loan restructurings across a variety of sectors including SEBs, airlines, metals and various export-linked SMEs which is likely to act as a continuous sentiment dampener until clarity emerges on a turning economic cycle.

Capital requirements: A host of PSU and PVT banks are likely to see capital infusion over the next 2 years, the former mainly from the Government and the latter mainly from the markets. With Basle-3 draft guidelines under debate and implementation spread over FY12-18, banks with higher capital levels are likely to be viewed more positively, including HFCs.

Safe Harbor Statement:

Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

[T.S.R:18260] VA Tech (WABAG)-BUY

2012-01-23T20:34:00.000-08:00

VA Tech Wabag (VTW) is a leading company in the water treatment industry with activities including design, installation, supply and operational management of drinking water and waste water treatment plants.

Headquartered in Chennai, VTW also has a market presence in the Middle East, North Africa, Central and Eastern Europe, China and South East Asia. We recently met Mr. S. Varadarajan, a promoter and CFO of VTW for Management Meeting Takeaways) .

Business Strategy — Management envisages growing revenues by 400% in the next five years on the back of: (1) Focus on an asset-light strategy – VTW

performs the value added and high margin work processes in-house and

outsources the civil construction process to third party contractors; (2) Strong

R&D focus; (3) VTW has ~Rs2.75bn cash in its balance sheet, which empowers it to evaluate inorganic growth opportunities to gain access to new markets.

ndustry Overview — Although India has been endowed with large freshwater resources, recent overdrawing of ground water has resulted in a strain on its

resources. The major opportunities in India lie in waste water treatment and

recycling segments. Agri-based industries, such as sugar, fertilizers and textiles are among the top producers of waste water in the country, offering significant

opportunities in waste water treatment and recycling, thereby allowing the treated water to be reused in the production process. In the domestic sector, major opportunities are in water treatment (~29% of the waste water is treated in Class I cities) and in water supply infrastructure in Class II cities, which drive the municipal water utility capex.

Competitive Analysis — Management mentioned that it competes with

Thermax and Hindustan Dorr Oliver in the industrial water treatment segment,

and IVRCL, NCC, Ramky Infrastructure and L&T in the conventional

technologies. VTW also competes with other water technology companies like

Ion Exchange, Doshion, Driplex and global competitors like Suez, Befesa, and

Cadagua.

Recent Results — In 2QFY12, VTW registered revenues of ~Rs2.7bn, up 12%

YoY and EBITDA margins expanded by ~320bps. The company registered a PAT of Rs69mn, compared to a loss of Rs19mn in 2QFY11. Management mentioned that the business is highly seasonal with H1 accounting for ~35-40% of full year revenues. This has historically led to a margin expansion in 2H due to operating leverage.

Strengths — (1) Long association with Wabag brand name; (2) Project reference list of over 2,250 projects across various sub-segments; (3) Professional management team with immense industry experience; (4) Focus on asset-light strategy yields high returns. Weaknesses — Smaller size compared to other diversified competitors, who can pose a competitive threat when the market size scales up.

[T.S.R:18259] Water-Nascent Industry, Big Potential

2012-01-23T20:15:00.000-08:00

Why look at the water sector? —

Companies in CIRA coverage like L&T, IVRCL,

NCC and Thermax have a presence in water treatment/management/distribution. While

this segment is currently a small percentage of business for companies like L&T,

Thermax (we estimate <10% of revenues, although granularity in information is

limited), we believe this is a nascent industry and given the huge demand for water in

the country it could become a compelling investment theme over a multi-year horizon.

Pure play water treatment/management companies like VA Tech Wabag and Ion

Exchange could also benefit from opportunities in this space.



India's water demand set to rise… — Although India has been endowed with large

freshwater resources, recent overdrawing of ground water has resulted in a strain on its

resources. Key factors driving India's water usage include: (1) Fast population growth;

(2) Traditional and inefficient agricultural practices; (3) Populist political practices (free

power leading to over-drawing of ground water via pumps); (4) Rising urbanization and

shift in consumption patterns to more water-intensive products like showers and

automatic washing machines; and (5) Rapid industrial growth in hinterland,

necessitating requirement of freshwater.



…driving increased investments in the sector — The water sector in India is a

~US$2.5bn industry (in 2007), and is expected to grow (Fig 13) to US$6.9bn by 2016.

The sector, being highly localized in nature, assumes particular importance in the

context of rising competition from Asian and global companies in India's infrastructure

and industrial capex opportunity. VA Tech Wabag (VTW) management estimate it takes

~2-3 years to enter a new market due to entry barriers such as: (1) Political and

bureaucratic environment: (2) Regulatory framework; and (3) Competitive landscape.



Opportunities in this segment — The major opportunities in India lie in waste water

treatment and recycling segments. Agri-based industries, such as sugar, fertilizers and

textiles, are among the top producers of waste water in the country, offering significant

opportunities in waste water treatment and recycling, thereby allowing the treated water

to be reused in the production process. In the domestic sector, major opportunities are

in water treatment (~29% of the waste water is treated in Class I cities) and in water

supply infrastructure in Class II cities, which drive the municipal water utility capex.



VA Tech Wabag: Management meeting takeaways — A diversified water treatment

company, VTW is present in 12 of the 15 fastest growing water markets globally.

Management envisages growing revenues 400% in the next five years on the back of:

(1) Focus on an asset-light strategy – VTW performs value added and high margin

work processes in-house and outsources the civil construction process to third party

contractors; (2) Strong R&D focus; (3) VTW has ~Rs2.75bn cash on its balance sheet,

which empowers it to evaluate inorganic growth opportunities to gain access to new

markets.

Safe Harbor Statement:

Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

[T.S.R:18258] [Team Stock Researchers Pvt. Ltd.] FREE TRIAL TRADE FROM TSR

2012-01-23T19:51:00.000-08:00

TSR INTRADAY TRADE:

SELL STERLLITE CASH/FUTURE @107

Stop 109.9

Target 1: 103.3

Target 2: 101,

"MAX HOLD TIME(DAYS) : 1

-visit: www.niftyviews.com

--
Posted By ~~ мιтs ™ ~~ to Team Stock Researchers Pvt. Ltd. at 1/24/2012 09:21:00 AM

[T.S.R:18257] [Team Stock Researchers Pvt. Ltd.] 1/23/2012 07:14:00 PM

2012-01-23T05:44:00.001-08:00

Nifty EOD Chart 23 JANUARY 2012

RELIANCE EOD CHART 23 JAN 2012

TATAMOTORS EOD CHART 23 JAN 2012

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Posted By Laloo Laal to Team Stock Researchers Pvt. Ltd. at 1/23/2012 07:14:00 PM

[T.S.R:18256] Hero MotoCorp-Sell

2012-01-23T00:07:00.001-08:00

Volume expansion and price hikes leads to strong revenue growth

Hero Motocorp has reported 11% yoy volume growth in Q3 FY12 and had taken a price hike of ~Rs700-1000 per vehicle in October resulting into 17% yoy and 4% qoq growth to Rs60.3 bn. The company has been consistently putting up a strong show by selling ~5.3-5.4 lakh units per month and has won ~2% market share in the quarter. Going forward, with domestic motorcycle industry showing signs of weakening, we expect Hero to feel the heat in the wake of strong competition from Honda, which is aggressively expanding its capacities. With three new launches expected this year from Hero in the form of 110cc Passion XPro, Ignitor 125cc and a scooter Maestro, and the recent launch of Impulse, we slightly increase our FY12E/FY13E volume expectations at 15%/10% respectively from 14%/9%. We do not see a significant scope for realizations to grow in wake of competition as market share retention will be the main aim.

Margins come below our expectations as staff cost rise and rupee depreciates

In spite of commodity prices going down, Hero was unable to fetch the benefits of the same in this quarter, as rupee has depreciated significantly vis-à-vis Japanese yen. Since Hero imports ~17% of RM from Japan, this impact was felt a bit too much. Also, employee costs increased 11% qoq, due to wage hike taken in August getting reflected in this quarter. Excluding royalty, margins came in at 15.6%. However, we consider royalty in other expenses, due to which our EBITDA margins came in at 11.9% considering royalty outgo of Rs2280 mn which has increased over the previous quarters due to yen appreciation. Margins have come below our expectations. Going forward, we expect HMCL to post improving margins of 12.1%/13.2% in FY12E/13E as commodity prices start showing their impact as rupee has started showing some strength vis-à-vis foreign currencies.

Outlook and valuation

In view of good show in the domestic markets and increasing the market share, we have slightly increased our volume estimates. We believe new launches also will support the domestic growth of Hero. However, rapid expansion of Honda and overall slowdown in the 2wheeler market will arrest a strong growth in market share, due to which we believe the volumes will not grow above 10% in FY13E. On margin front, we are maintaining our margin estimates as we believe FY 13 will show margin improvement of up to 100bps as raw material prices are slowing down, but at the same time, low price new launches will lead to an adverse product mix, thus capping realization growth. We value the stock at 14x times FY 13E EPS of Rs142.5, due to its market leadership position and domestic strength.

[T.S.R:18255] RIL-Sell

2012-01-22T23:20:00.001-08:00

RIL – Bleak Outlook

]

• On 20th Jan 2012, RIL declared muted Q3FY12 results.

• Tried to cheer investors by announcing buyback of shares at a price of Rs. 870.

• Buyback is very negative, it is a cover up for bad result and in bear phase market the stock will not move above buyback price.

• The surprise was the sharp slide in the profits, "Other Income" in the current quarter constitutes 30% of the Profit Before Tax.

• RIL's refining margins fell to US$ 6.8/bbl a discount of US$ 1.1/bbl over benchmark Singapore GRM US$7.3-7.4/bbl. Lost its advantage of trading at a premium to Singapore GRM.

• Third quarter numbers indicate weakness across business segments and bleak future outlook for the company as a whole

[T.S.R:18254] HDFC-Sell, HDFC Warrants May Slide to Rs 60

2012-01-22T22:31:00.000-08:00

We recently met the HDFC management for better understanding of the company's foreign currency exposure, hedging policies and related accounting adjustments in Q3FY12. We also gained clarity on utilization of excess reserves/networth due to adjustments pertaining to interest on zero coupon bonds and standard asset provisioning. We maintain our PAT estimate of 18% CAGR and RoEs of 23

‐24% over FY11‐13. However, due to utilization of reserves, as discussed above, book value accretion will be 18‐19% (refer table 6). Our SOTP fair value is INR664/ share (FY13E)

(valuing the core book at 4.2x and investments at INR 224)

Forex exposure: Adequately hedged

•

HDFC had USD1.1bn of foreign currency denominated liabilities (refer table 1), which were completely hedged as of FY11. Over and above forex denominated liabilities, the company had entered into USD697mn cross currency swaps and interest rate swap converting its fixed rate INR liability into floating rate forex liability to trim the overall cost of borrowing (refer table 2). Besides using principal only swaps, currency option, forward contracts and cross currency swaps for hedging (refer table 3), it has build USD denominated assets of USD500‐600mn to create a natural hedge against currency movement risk.

•

The net open position on forex exposure in FY11 was USD304mn (on cross currency swaps). However, due to sharp INR depreciation in 9mFY12, limit on ~USD300mn currency options (European) got triggered and if the INR /USD rate continues to remain above the trigger limit, it will also be classified as an open position.

• HDFC accounted for cross currency swaps at fair value, i.e., incorporating MTM on both currency movement and interest rate differentials. As per management, historically the moves often offset each other, leading to minimal MTM hit.

Q3FY12 onwards, an accounting policy change has been effected whereby outstanding liability will be marked to spot rates, but the benefit on interest rate differentials will be excluded.

[T.S.R:18253] Hind Dorr-Could This Stock Turn To Be A Multi-Bagger of 2012?

2012-01-22T20:18:00.000-08:00

Hind Dorr-Return To An MNC status will make this blue water stock a multi-bagger

IVRCL has put it's 53 per cent stake in HDO up for sale-the company could be bagged by one of the MNC players in the Fresh Water, Water Recycling business.

IVRCL's subsidiary Hindustan Dorr Oliver (HDO) is a leading EPC company in water and waste water management. The company's solutions in the space include water

pumping, conveyance, water treatment, recycle technologies, sewage treatment,industrial effluent treatment, desalination works and distribution. HDO has entered into the following technology tie-ups in the water management space – (1)Acquatech (USA) for RO Plant; (2) SFC (Austria) for SBR; and (3) GE Infra (Canada) for water reuse-recycle technologies.

HDO has undertaken water management and effluent treatment for all major refineries in India in the past five years. Its newly acquired Davy Markham business

also caters to the power generation segment for water control systems.

India's water demand set to rise…
Although India has been endowed with large freshwater resources, recent overdrawing of ground water has resulted in a strain on its resources. Key factors driving India's water usage include: (1) Fast population growth; (2) Traditional and inefficient agricultural practices; (3) Populist political practices (free power leading to over-drawing of ground water via pumps); (4) Rising urbanization and shift in consumption patterns to more water-intensive products like showers and automatic washing machines; and (5) Rapid industrial growth in hinterland, necessitating requirement of freshwater.

…driving increased investments in the sector — The water sector in India is a ~US$2.5bn industry (in 2007), and is expected to grow (Fig 13) to US$6.9bn by 2016. The sector, being highly localized in nature, assumes particular importance in the context of rising competition from Asian and global companies in India's infrastructure and industrial capex opportunity. VA Tech Wabag (VTW) management estimate it takes ~2-3 years to enter a new market due to entry barriers such as: (1) Political and bureaucratic environment: (2) Regulatory framework; and (3) Competitive landscape

[T.S.R:18252] [Team Stock Researchers Pvt. Ltd.] 1/20/2012 07:19:00 PM

2012-01-20T05:49:00.000-08:00

Nifty EOD Chart 20 JANUARY 2012

RELIANCE EOD CHART 20 JAN 2012

TATAMOTORS EOD CHART 20 JAN 2012

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Posted By Laloo Laal to Team Stock Researchers Pvt. Ltd. at 1/20/2012 07:19:00 PM

[T.S.R:18251] Deutsche Bank-2012 Will Be The Year Of Infrastructure

2012-01-19T19:36:00.001-08:00

Heading into CY12, valuations (E&C, Coal India) seem to be factoring in deep

pessimism. Valuations imply a coal volume de-growth of ~2% CAGR over

FY13-20e and new order growth of 5-10% CAGR over FY13-20e vs. 25-30%

CAGR over FY02-11. Our lead indicators suggest a recovery as: (a) new project

approvals show signs of a pick-up (b) cement demand has rebounded of late (c)

CY11 power demand growth at a decade high. For CY12, key themes could be

valuations and recovery. We prefer companies with strong balance sheets, high

RoEs/FCF as being the best positioned to benefit from an upturn.

Valuations and cyclical recovery to be key themes in CY2012

While perceptions of pricing power emerged as a key differentiated theme for

CY11, for the coming year and beyond we believe that the following themes

could emerge: (a) capex cycle recovery

– our expectation in early H2CY12; (b)

improving business confidence, especially on clearances; and restoration of

faith in capital markets; (c) pricing a big differentiator in energy themes, i.e.,

Coal India JSPL; (d) realignment (forced or friendly), a rate cut reversal may

help leveraged companies; and (f) currency could benefit exporters, hurting

earnings from unhedged forex liability.

Our top picks are among the best positioned for cyclical recovery

Our top picks in the pan-Indian infrastructure coverage universe are companies

that offer: (a) benefits from operating leverage as and when the economy

recovers; (b) a strong balance sheet and RoE, giving us comfort that companies

are not stuck with receivables; (c) either strong FCF or earnings yields, which

offer some cushion to valuations and (d) reverse DCF, which suggests that

stocks are currently factoring in deep pessimism. Stocks that fit in these

metrics are Coal India, JSPL, L&T, ACC and NTPC.

Our target prices are based on a combination of mid-cycle multiples and DCF

After the series of consensus downgrades, we now find our estimates largely

in line with consensus. Our 12-month target prices are premised on 16x oneyear

forward exit P/E for E&C companies and Coal India, and USD125 EV/t for

cement names. For power utility names, we use a combination of project DCF,

using 12.5% CoE for operational projects and 13-15% for projects under

construction. For PSUs, which operate under two-part tariffs, we use exit

price/book target multiples of 2-2.25 regulated equity, as per the Gordon

Growth Model. Key risks:(a) r

ecovery in India's investment cycle gets pushed

back by another year; (b) Coal India rolls back to the previous pricing

mechanism; (c) the cement industry players once again shift their objectives

from maintaining discipline to market share; resulting in price wars and (d) a

global slowdown resulting in a sharp reduction in worldwide coal prices, which

would hurt Coal India's

EPS as well as JSPL's competitive strengths.

Safe Harbor Statement:

Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

[T.S.R:18250] [Team Stock Researchers Pvt. Ltd.] 1/19/2012 06:55:00 PM

2012-01-19T05:25:00.001-08:00

Nifty EOD Chart 19 JANUARY 2012

RELIANCE EOD CHART 19 JAN 2012

TATAMOTORS EOD CHART 19 JAN 2012

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Posted By Laloo Laal to Team Stock Researchers Pvt. Ltd. at 1/19/2012 06:55:00 PM

[T.S.R:18249] GOI Set To Invest $ 35 Bn Into Infra Projects-Fast Track The Economy

2012-01-18T19:50:00.001-08:00

High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Email ftsales.support@ft.com to buy additional rights. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d702c8a8-41b3-11e1-a586-00144feab49a.html#ixzz1js7sB8RT

India is to launch a $35bn wave of public sector investment to reverse a decline in the fast-growing economy's growth rate and return it closer to double digits, according to the prime minister's office.

The emergency stimulus measures are in response to widespread criticism of policy paralysis in New Delhi and a dramatic fall in economic growth to 7 per cent from an earlier 9 per cent.

The government of Manmohan Singh has ordered 17 state-owned companies to use money currently held in reserve to invest in a mixture of infrastructure projects and overseas energy purchases.

"They are sitting on piles of cash," said one official of the urgent need to trigger a mobilisation of currently "inactive" resources to boost confidence in the economy, and promote India's energy security.

The move is also an attempt to prompt private-sector companies – which have expressed reservations about investing in the domestic market – to follow suit. But some observers have criticised the move as a throwback to the "old formula" of the 1970s when then prime minister Indira Gandhi used public infrastructure spending to boost growth.

India's top policymakers are worried about the economy's loss of momentum, and ebbing business confidence after a dismal year characterised by political bickering, high profile corruption scandals and an exit of foreign capital.

Companies, such as the Oil and Natural Gas Corporation, Coal India and the National Mineral Development Corporation, have signed agreements to spend as much as $35bn of their cash or bank balances over the fiscal year starting in April to expand their operations.

The sum is almost twice the $19bn foreign direct investment into India in 2011.

Among the proposed measures, Coal India, which had a successful initial public offering last year has been asked to "actively consider investment" in allied sectors such as road, railways, waterways and power to improve the transport of coal. Bharat Electronics Limited, a state-owned defence company, is considering a buy-back of equity to utilise its surplus resources.

Fast-tracked investments, mainly in the coal and oil sectors, will be monitored quarterly by Mr Singh's own office to prevent backsliding.

Of the total, Rs400bn ($7bn) has been identified for investments overseas to buy assets like coal, gas and oil. ONGC has undertaken to spend Rs205bn in foreign investment in the coming fiscal year; Coal India has agreed to Rs60bn.

The move by the Singh administration also reflects India's determination to push for higher growth in spite of uncertainty surrounding the global economic recovery and renewed anxiety about the performance of eurozone economies.

Senior officials acknowledge that conservatism has gripped the public sector as officials fear repercussions of their decisions – as a result they have been sitting on cash piles and earning high interest rates – should they end in controversy or failure. The result is that they are not leveraging their resources to pursue faster growth.

At the same time, corruption scandals, notably in the fast-growing telecoms sector, have widened the distance between the bureaucracy and private sector as top officials fear the spread of "crony capitalism".

The outlook for India's economy is clouded by policy inaction, a deteriorating fiscal situation, weak balance of payments and an economic slowdown, say many economists. "The domestic economy deserves a push that can be provided by the government," said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Mumbai-based Care Ratings.

"The focus will be on project expenditure this time to provide a boost to the infrastructure sector." The decision to boost investments by the public sector was taken at a meeting earlier this month between 26 heads of utilities and the prime minister's office.

"Public sector investment can provide stimulus to the economy," said an official summary of the meeting. "Companies which hold significant cash and bank balances [will] draw up credible investment programmes, and implement them with vigour."

Safe Harbor Statement:

Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

[T.S.R:18248] [Team Stock Researchers Pvt. Ltd.] TSR : NiftyViews and Stock view for 19 jan'12

2012-01-18T19:45:00.001-08:00

Nifty future is expected to trade in a range of 4840-4884 today .

If crossing 4884 today with volume will take nifty above 5000 mark. Above 5005 next resistance at 5022.

Nifty future is looking positive today. We would like to be caution with nifty trade

Stock to watch : Cairn India.

Trend positive

with support 333 and resistance 352-360.

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Posted By ~~ мιтs ™ ~~ to Team Stock Researchers Pvt. Ltd. at 1/19/2012 09:15:00 AM

[T.S.R:18247] AnantRaj Estate-Gurgaon To Come Up On 100 Acres of Land

2012-01-18T18:27:00.001-08:00

Anant Raj Industries Ltd has informed BSE that the Company is launching its township project namely "Anant Raj Estate" at Sector 63A Gurgaon (Haryana), The Company has already obtained license for this Project.

The township project comprises of Luxury Villas, Plots, Residential Flats and Independent Floors. The project is located in the vicinity of planned high end development both in corporate and commercial sectors. This phase of project is spread over 100 Acres.

Safe Harbor Statement:

Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

[T.S.R:18246] UBS-Now That's A Rally!

2012-01-18T16:54:00.000-08:00

The highlight of trading on Wednesday was the SNP touching 1300 for the first time in a year. Rate cuts in Brazil, Australia, Indonesia and policy rates on hold in India. Relaxed reserve requirements in China and the unveiling of a $ 35 bn infra stimulus from the GOI implies that Governments across the globe are seeking growth, and Central Banks will coordinate policy action to facilitate that.

Spending to growth is the only way out of a logjam caused by sticky unemployment and lare pools of Debt on the books of Governments in the West. Whether long term problems remain or not, the fact remains that for the moment they have been pushed down the road and markets are benefiting.

Investors need to note, the latest steps are in continuation of what the ECB and ESFF have been trying to do since December last.

The announcement that major central banks are coordinating policy to ease the cost and shortage of USD liquidity sparked a significant rally for risk assets in the US session. In a surprise but much-needed move, the ECB, in coordination with the Fed, Bank of Canada, BoJ, BoE and SNB have decided to cut the cost of the existing temporary US dollar liquidity swaps from OIS + 100bp to OIS + 50bp. Bilateral cross-currency swap lines will also be established and the operations will now be extended into 2013.

To alleviate the situation further, the ECB has also cut the margin on the 3-month operations from 20% to 12%. The EUR rallied back to 1.35 from 1.33 after the release, and the dollar has fallen across the board. AUDUSD has gained 3% from the day's low, although there was a slight correction later in the afternoon. The move came in a context of broad 'risk on', which was further supported by strong employment data in the US and a Required Reserve Ratio cut in China.

We view the RRR announcement as slightly more than a symbolic gesture but it was not entirely unexpected given that policy easing has been underway across parts of China in recent weeks The ADP print came in at +206k, significantly above consensus. Chicago PMI for November was also strongly above consensus at 62. In the short term, we believe the rally will continue as further short positions are squeezed and expectations for political developments in Europe remain intact.

However, we question its sustainability in the longer term, particularly for EURUSD, as none of the underlying problems have changed.

Safe Harbor Statement:

Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

[T.S.R:18245] Anil Ambani-Embracing The Bear?

2012-01-18T16:19:00.000-08:00

2011 has not been a great year for Anil Ambani.

The companies in his telecom-to-energy conglomerate are sitting on a mountain of debt, a chunk of which is denominated in foreign currencies and is coming up for redemption; three of his executives at Reliance ADAG were implicated in India's biggest corruption scandal, and he himself had to suffer the ignominy of an informal chat with the CBI; stocks of his companies have been battered down; attempts to sell parts of his business to raise funds to retire debt have not yet fructified; fresh borrowing costs have shot up, and have been compounded by the sharp fall in the rupee in recent months; and, in recent days, he has even been the victim of an anonymous defamation campaign.

About the only good thing to happen to the group was a lessening of tensions with brother Mukesh Ambani, but the vultures were circling overhead anyway.

And just when the perfect storm of bad karma was threatening his empire, Anil has been thrown a lifeline.

2011 has not been a great year for Anil Ambani. Punit Paranjpe/Reuters

It comes in the form of a $1.2 billion loan to Reliance Communications (RCom) from three Chinese state-owned banks – the China Development Bank (CDB), the Export Import Bank of China, and the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC).

This is, in fact, the second time RCom has borrowed from Chinese banks; last March, Anil borrowed $1.9 billion from the CDB, much of whose proceeds were used to purchase telecom equipment from China's Huawei Technologies.

According to HSBC, the latest loans will help Reliance Communications cap its interest expenses at 5 percent, compared to the dollar funding cost of 6.8 percent.

Analysts point out that this is a really, really big deal – not just for Reliance, but also for other Indian corporates, since they too face redemptions on their foreign currency convertible bonds (FCCB), and would have been slammed if Reliance hadn't been able to secure the finance.

Raj Kothari, a convertible trader based in London, told Bloomberg that "If Reliance Communications had defaulted, the whole Indian convertible market would have collapsed".

Juergen Maier, a fund manager at Raiffeisen Capital Management, noted that "without the Chinese, they (Reliance) would have been in big trouble.. The Chinese are the last lenders left…"

What's in it for the Chinese?

Since there's no such thing as a free lunch – or an ultra-cheap loan – what are the Chinese banks' motives in taking a large bet on Anil's empire?

For one thing, the primary vehicles for China's loans to overseas corporations – principally the ExIm Bank and CDB, from which Ambani secured his low-cost loan — are state-owned "policy banks" with the express mandate to "advance China's national interest."

China has been using these banks as the advance vehicle to leverage its financial muscle to expand its exports to developing economies at a time when its primary export markets – in the US and Europe – are shrinking. China is also looking to graduate from low-cost made-in-China "junk" to higher-end exports, such as telecom infrastructure and equipment needed in energy projects.

For instance, the loan that Anil secured last year was used to part-finance a $10 billion deal to purchase power generation equipment from the state-owned Shanghai Electric; it was then billed as the "largest single business transaction" between India and China.

Given the significance of that deal, Shanghai Electric offered the equipment at a 30-40 percent discount (relative to what, say, a General Electric, would have offered). The preferential-interest rate loan lowered that discount even further, to about 60 percent.

To that extent, these cheap loans may appear to be a win-win proposition for both sides.

But there's a catch

But in the stampede to secure 'cheap' Chinese loans, Anil Ambani – and other companies who are contemplating similar deals — could also end up paying a price, going by the experience of other entities in other countries that similarly entered into 'concessional' loan agreements with Chinese lenders.

CDB, observes Erica Downs at the John L. Thornton China Center at Brookings, "is a link between the strategic ambitions of the Chinese government and the commercial interests of Chinese firms because the financing it provides to support cross-border deals connects state policy to commercial activity."

And although China frequently claims that its "concessional loans" come without strings attached, they in fact come with specific conditionalities that often work to advance Chinese strategic and commercial interests at the cost of the borrowers'.

Since the mid-2000s, for instance, CDB has participated in some of China's most high-profile cross-border deals. Yet, it's not always been a reliable 'lender'.

The case of Indonesian state-owned power company PLN, which entered into an arrangement with China Exim Bank, CDB and Bank of China to finance a $8 billion project to build a dozen coal-fired power plants, is illustrative. The project was to have been completed by 2011, but in January 2009, the Chinese lenders, who had until then lent only $2 billion, suspended the rest of the loan tranches.

The reason? According to Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Minister, the projecthad been "taken hostage" by the Chinese lenders in order to put pressure on the Indonesian government to settle an unrelated commercial dispute between an Indonesian airline and a Chinese commercial aircraft manufacturer.

Chinese officials told Indonesian leaders that only if the dispute was settled to China's advantage would the other loan tranches to the power project be released. Additionally, the Chinese lenders wanted Indonesia to agree to higher interest rates on the loans for the PLN project.

Only after the airline dispute was settled to China's advantage was the lending for the PLN power project resumed; but by then the project was delayed and its cost had escalated.

"The case suggests that large-scale Chinese financing in developing countries can confer leverage on Chinese state-linked financial institutions that extends across projects in the same recipient country," noted Mikael Mattlin and Matti Nojonen at the Bank of Finland.

The researchers point out that contrary to China's claims that Chinese loans and investments in developing economies come without any conditionalities, in fact, "China is certainly not above attaching conditions to lending." Most conditions are likely not imposed by a unitary state actor but emerge from the voluminous business activities of Chinese state-linked lenders and enterprises in developing countries.

The broader concern, they say, relates to the extent to which China uses its growing financial power to gain commercial or political leverage.

Similar expressions of concern that Chinese loans may not serve the borrowers' interests and may be a "Trojan Horse" to promote Chinese commercial and strategic interests have been heard from Ghana (as in many parts of Africa), Sri Lanka, Belarus and Tonga.

Selling themselves short

This does not mean Anil Ambani's group is going to face any such problem. However, the risk is that, as happened in the Indonesian case, when disputes arise between Indian and Chinese entities, the Chinese lenders will leverage their enormous hold on the Indian companies to settle the disputes to the advantage of the Chinese entities.

Chinese telecom equipment makers have in the past had trouble with the Indian establishment on security-related matters; even power projects in India built by Chinese companies have run into controversies. In such eventualities, the space for the Indian agencies to establish their case will be constrained if Chinese lenders extract their pound of flesh from the Indian companies that are indebted to them.

Even in the absence of disputes, Chinese lenders, principally CDB and China Exim Bank, have been known to advance Chinese strategic interests, even when the loans they advance were in the commercial space.

It will be interesting to see whether Anil Ambani will face pressures from the Chinese to help with their political lobbying. In recent years, the import of thousands of illegal, unskilled Chinese labourers had become a source of friction between the two countries. The Indian government had then disallowed the issuance of Indian visas for unskilled and semi-skilled labourers from China.

Given the financial situation of the Anil Ambani group, there's no way to know how the Chinese will use their leverage to further its own interests in India.

[T.S.R:18244] [Team Stock Researchers Pvt. Ltd.] 1/18/2012 08:51:00 PM

2012-01-18T07:21:00.001-08:00

Nifty EOD Chart 18 JANUARY 2012

RELIANCE EOD CHART 18 JUN 2012

TATAMOTORS EOD CHART 18 JAN 2012

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Posted By Laloo Laal to Team Stock Researchers Pvt. Ltd. at 1/18/2012 08:51:00 PM

[T.S.R:18243] [Team Stock Researchers Pvt. Ltd.] FREE TRIAL TRADE FROM TSR

2012-01-17T20:04:00.001-08:00

A BIT RISKY TRADE . PLEASE TRADE IN SMALL QUANTITY : TSR INTRADAY TRADE:(SMALL QUANTITY)SELL MMTC CASH @885-888 Stop 902 Target 1: 866 Target 2: 852, "MAX HOLD TIME(DAYS) : 1 -visit: www.niftyviews.com

9: 33 AM : NOW AT 888.

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Posted By ~~ мιтs ™ ~~ to Team Stock Researchers Pvt. Ltd. at 1/18/2012 09:34:00 AM

[T.S.R:18242] [Team Stock Researchers Pvt. Ltd.] 1/17/2012 07:33:00 PM

2012-01-17T06:03:00.000-08:00

Nifty EOD Chart 17 JANUARY 2012

RELIANCE EOD CHART 17 JAN 2012

TATAMOROTS EOD CHART 17 JAN 2012

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Posted By Laloo Laal to Team Stock Researchers Pvt. Ltd. at 1/17/2012 07:33:00 PM

[T.S.R:18241] Anantraj Industries-Possibly The Only Debt Free Real Estate Player In India

2012-01-17T00:54:00.000-08:00

Anantraj Industries-The Only Debt Free Real Estate Company In India

The following projects are in varying stages of completion in Delhi/Gurgaon

1.Maceo I and II, Apartments

2.Hauz Khas Apartments

3.Bijwasan Apartments

4.Bhagwan Das Road Villas worth Rs 700 crore

5.Anantraj Gated Complex At Gurgaon Rs 6000 crore

6.IT Park, Sonepat

7. IT Park Manesar

8. Jewellery Mall, Karol Bagh

9.Shopping Mall, Moti Nagar.

10. Apartment Complex, Neemrana

Current Debt about Rs 1000 crore from LIC and Yes Bank With a 15 year maturity at 12 per cent per annum.

No Pledged Shares, No Mortgages as Collateral.

Deutsche Securities Mauritius entire lot picked by India Infoline A/C IIFL Ganga Capital Fund.

So no more distress sale from Institutional Investors.

Gurgaon Township will help clear all debts by April 2013.

[T.S.R:18240] BL Kashyap-Ready To Rise

2012-01-16T23:26:00.000-08:00

BL Kashyap has embarked on various new assignments, which are stepping stone, for a big leap towards getting many more such critically important projects, which would go in the overall growth of the Company and its profile. The year in perspective is important for the reason that there has been significant shift in the overall project profiling so as to de-risk the over dependence on limited sector specific Industries. A point in comparison is 20% of the total order book is from the Central Government sector.

BLK constructs all types of buildings: Corporate Headquarters, Research And Development Complexes, Educational Campuses, Healthcare Facilities, Hotels / Conference Centers, Multi-family Residential Developments, Retail Malls And Lifestyle Centers, Government Buildings, Bridges, Airports etc.

The Company has completed more than 28 projects in last year with clients including M/s HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd., M/s Toyota Kirloskar Motor Pvt. Ltd., M/s Bennett Coleman & Co. Ltd., M/s Delhi Metro Rail Corporation Ltd., and M/s Indian Oil Corporation Ltd.

[T.S.R:18239] Rallis India Likely To Move Upto Rs 160

2012-01-16T20:15:00.000-08:00

FYI

[T.S.R:18238] Britannia Bonus Debentures Offer Attractive 1 Yr Return (BSE 934792)

2012-01-16T17:20:00.000-08:00

8.25% Britannia NCD-22/3/13 may interest investors who are looking for returns higher than Bank FDs with shorter maturities than competing instruments from PFC, REC, NHAI, IIISL and Manapuram. The Britannia Bonus Debentures (BSE 934792) have a FV of Rs 170 and will make 2 Annual Coupon payments of Rs 14, on March 22,2012 and redeem on Mar22,2013 the FV of Rs 170. The investment is for 14 months and will fetch annualised returns in excess of 11 percent.

Safe Harbor Statement:

Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

[T.S.R:18237] [Team Stock Researchers Pvt. Ltd.] 1/16/2012 07:00:00 PM

2012-01-16T05:30:00.001-08:00

Nifty EOD Chart 16 JANUARY 2012

RELIANCE EOD CHART 16 JAN 2012

TATAMOTORS EOD CHART 16 JAN 2012

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Posted By Laloo Laal to Team Stock Researchers Pvt. Ltd. at 1/16/2012 07:00:00 PM

[T.S.R:18236] Anantraj-Dec11 Qtr IIFL Picks Additional 50 lakh shares in Q3

2012-01-16T04:35:00.001-08:00

1	Government of Singapore Investment Corporation Pte Ltd	15,559,957	5.27
2	Royal Bank of Scotland NV (Landon) Branch	7,671,250	2.60
3	IIFL Inc A/c IIFL Capital Ganges Fund	9,983,000	3.38
4	Citigroup Global Markets Mauritius Pvt Ltd	4,299,158	1.46
5	Reliance Capital Trustee Co Ltd A/C Reliance Tax Server (ELLS) Ltd	3,512,000	1.19
6	Mackenzie Cundill Emerging Markets Value Class	3,500,000	1.19
7	Bessemer India Capital Partners II SA	3,319,787	1.12
8	Sonata Investment Ltd	3,160,000	1.07
	Total	51,005,152	17.28

Safe Harbor Statement:

Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

[T.S.R:18235] Real Estate-Reporting Standards

2012-01-16T00:04:00.000-08:00

FYI

Safe Harbor Statement:

Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

[T.S.R:18234] Nomura-2012, please look at the Real Estate Segment

2012-01-16T00:03:00.000-08:00

FYI

Safe Harbor Statement:

Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

[T.S.R:18233] Areva-SEIL Bifurcation of Assets; 23 per cent Goes To SEIL

2012-01-16T00:02:00.000-08:00

FYI

Safe Harbor Statement:

Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

[T.S.R:18232] Real Estate-A Recovery Rather Than The End (Nomura)

2012-01-15T19:47:00.001-08:00

Nomura

India Real Estate-A Recovery Rather Than The End

A sign of recovery is a slight softening in residential home prices, accompanied by rate cuts running right into the middle of FY13 which will raise demand for real estate quantumfold, improving cash flows of realtors. Commercial property too is beginning to firm up-high street properties like the 7 Star Oberoi, Gurgaon have been concluded at Rs 750/sq feet in recent deals with Jimmy Choo, Hermes and the like.

The residential segment witnessed a poor period in CY11, with volumes in Mumbai falling 30% YoY, while remaining flat at best in most other cities,

driven by the lack of affordability. In CY12, with supply increasing due to approvals for new launches in Mumbai, we expect prices in the city to

correct by 15% in the next 6-9 months. This price correction and also a possible decline in interest rates could renew buying interest and boost

volumes in 2HCY12. NCR could witness increased investor interest if interest rates fall, while Bangalore and Chennai are likely to witness steady

volumes with an increased focus on mid-income housing. On the whole, we expect 2HCY12 to show growth in sale volumes.

Office space – No demand growth expected; rentals can increase

CY11 was a very good year for the office market with demand at ~35.5mn sq ft, outstripping fresh supply, driven primarily by Bangalore. In CY12, we

expect leasing demand to remain flat at best, as slower growth in the economy reduces the need for office space expansion. Supply at ~30mn

sq ft in CY11 is likely to continue moderating as developers strapped for cash avoid investing in office developments. We expect to see rentals

growing in Bangalore and Chennai, and remaining flat in other cities.

Developers to focus on asset sales and deleveraging

With cash flow from regular sales not enough to make even a dent in developers' leverage over the past two years, the focus is shifting towards

selling assets and land as the pressure to repay debt increases. With too many sellers and not enough buyers in the market, we fear that developers

may have to sell asset at lower valuations in CY12F.

What to do with the sector and stocks?

Stocks in the sector are trading at a 35-70% discount to NAV, as concerns on slowing volumes, leveraged balance sheets, high interest rates and

corporate governance continue. We expect the stocks to bottom at current levels as we believe the interest rate cycle has peaked, volumes can

bounce back in six months time while asset sales can reduce leverage.

We remain positive on DLF (a deleveraging play), Prestige Estates (a play on Bangalore's steady volumes and rental increases) and Oberoi Realty

(Mumbai recovery and good corporate governance).

Safe Harbor Statement:

Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

[T.S.R:18231] [Team Stock Researchers Pvt. Ltd.] 1/13/2012 09:31:00 PM

2012-01-13T08:01:00.001-08:00

Nifty EOD Chart 13 JANUARY 2012

RELIANCE EOD CHART 13 JAN 2012

TATAMOTORS EOD CHART 13 JAN 2012

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Posted By Laloo Laal to Team Stock Researchers Pvt. Ltd. at 1/13/2012 09:31:00 PM

[T.S.R:18230] Hind Dorr Announces A Slew Of Orders Fm Ongc, PSUs and Zambia

2012-01-12T23:40:00.001-08:00

Hindustan Dorr-Oliver Ltd has informed BSE that the Company received recently a prestigious order of the value of Rs.170 Crores from ONGC Petro Additions Limited (OPAL) for entire Effluent Collection and Treatment System (ECTS) Package for its grass root Mega Petrochemical project in the PCPIR / SEZ zone at Dahej. The Project is to be completed in 24 months. ECTS package includes various technology packages from leading Global suppliers for treatment of Petrochemical waste.

Safe Harbor Statement:

Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

[T.S.R:18229] Suprajit Engineering Sets Up New Plants, Worth A Look

2012-01-12T20:29:00.001-08:00

" 1. A groundbreaking ceremony was performed on December 01, 2011 for a new automotive cable plant at Suprajit Automotive Limited, 100% EOU at Bangalore. The plant is expected to start production before the end of 2012 to meet the new projects received from certain marquee customers for exports. Suprajit Automotive Limited is a fully owned subsidiary of Suprajit Engineering Limited.

2. A groundbreaking ceremony was performed for another new plant at Doddaballapur, Bangalore. This plant is expected to produce some of the new products, which are currently in advanced stage of development."

Safe Harbor Statement:

Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

[T.S.R:18228] [Team Stock Researchers Pvt. Ltd.] TSR : NiftyViews and Stock view for 13 jan'12

2012-01-12T19:44:00.000-08:00

Nifty spot is looking very tricky for today's trade.

We have seen good moves both side in last week .

today is friday we expect volatility in markt.

Nifty spot took support at 4815. (Nifty future 4818-22) is level to watch. Upside Nifty fpot resistance at 4861 (Nifty future 4866-70) .

Nifty future magic number : 4818-4848-4866-4884.

4818 is good support . below 4818 if sustain wit volume , caution for long positions.

stock to watch :

Check our premium service charges :

LIC housing finance :

Support : 232.

Resistance 244-248

Days to hold 3-5

Keep tracking this stock . We are bullish on it.

Wish you all very happy trading.

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Posted By ~~ мιтs ™ ~~ to Team Stock Researchers Pvt. Ltd. at 1/13/2012 09:14:00 AM

[T.S.R:18227] Petronet LNG-BUY

2012-01-12T07:35:00.000-08:00

A vast amount of India's natural gas production comes from the western offshore regions, particularly the Mumbai High complex. India also imports ample natural gas. Its state-owned companies account for the bulk of natural gas production. ONGC and Oil India lead with respect to production volumes, while some foreign companies participate in upstream developments in joint-ventures and production-sharing contracts.

Reliance Industries is the largest natural gas supplier in the private sector. It is in the limelight as, in the week ending December 25, it produced 38.43 million cmd of natural gas from the Dhirubhai-1 and 3 gas fields and the MA oilfield in Block KG-DWN-98/3, or KG-D6, in the Krishna-Godavari Basin of the Bay of Bengal, according to a status report filed by it with the Oil Ministry. Output from the D1 and D3 gas fields was 31.58 million cmd; from the MA, it was 6.85 million cmd. The share of Reliance Industries, operator of the world's largest refinery complex, declined to its lowest in 35 months on concerns regarding lower refining profits and falling natural gas output, which might drive down earnings.

The stock has dropped 35 percent this year and 55% from its peak in 2007, while the Index has corrected 25% from its peak. It has been underperforming for the past four years. Reliance is struggling to reverse a decline in gas output from the nation's biggest deposit, which resulted in it missing analysts' estimates thrice in the last four quarters. Net income this quarter may also be affected because of lower refining margins. We see that a production ramp-up is possible, but not before FY 14-15. Hence, ahead, Reliance could be a major laggard of the Index .

Ahead of a meeting of an empowered group of ministers (eGoM) later this month, private power producers are pushing for priority in natural gas supply. They want 18 million cmd of gas being supplied from nominated fields for non-core sectors to be shifted to priority sectors such as power and fertilisers. They also want enough gas supply to enable all power plants to be able to work at a 60 per cent plant-load factor.

The best alternative is to import gas to offset the reduction in Reliance's production. Now the million-dollar question is: who would be the major beneficiary???? All those companies that import gas could be major beneficiaries….. Petronet LNG among them

Safe Harbor Statement:

Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

[T.S.R:18226] Real Estate-A New Perspective

2012-01-12T07:01:00.000-08:00

FYI

Safe Harbor Statement:

Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

[T.S.R:18225] [Team Stock Researchers Pvt. Ltd.] 1/12/2012 07:13:00 PM

2012-01-12T05:43:00.001-08:00

Nifty EOD Chart 12 JANUARY 2012

RELIANCE EOD CHART 12 JAN 2012

TATAMOTORS EOD CHART 12 JAN 2012

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Posted By Laloo Laal to Team Stock Researchers Pvt. Ltd. at 1/12/2012 07:13:00 PM

[T.S.R:18224] Claris LifeSciences-FII Stake At 23% For Dec2011 Qtr

2012-01-11T20:29:00.001-08:00

1	First Carlyle Ventures III	7,111,095	11.14
2	Tree Line Asia Master Fund (Singapore) Pte Ltd	1,920,254	3.01
3	Citigroup Global Markets Mauritus Pvt Ltd	800,046	1.25
4	Indian Capital Pte Ltd A/c Indea Long	1,000,000	1.57
5	Max New York Life Insurance Company Ltd	1,405,000	2.20
6	Copthall Mauritius Investment Ltd	1,240,104	1.94
	Total	13,476,499	21.12

Safe Harbor Statement:

Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

[T.S.R:18223] [Team Stock Researchers Pvt. Ltd.] TSR : NiftyViews and Stock view for 12 Jan'12

2012-01-11T19:45:00.001-08:00

Nifty future with positive up trend looking good for bulls.

Today is crucial day for nifty . 12-1-12 !

Positional Support at 4822-18 level and resistance at 4909 and 4922 range level.

Positional trend is looking positive but we will wait and watch .

Magic figures for today : 4822-4848-4888-4912

If nifty crosses 4912 with good volume we would say no to short position .

Same way today's closing below 4822 will lead selling further.

For stocks be online on www.niftyviews.com we will give live views during mrkt hours.

Check our rates below. We provide our premium service with accuracy more than 70% since last 5 years now. TSR service starts at 2000 Rs per month.

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Posted By ~~ мιтs ™ ~~ to Team Stock Researchers Pvt. Ltd. at 1/12/2012 09:15:00 AM

[T.S.R:18222] [Team Stock Researchers Pvt. Ltd.] 1/11/2012 07:02:00 PM

2012-01-11T05:32:00.001-08:00

Nifty EOD Chart 11 JANUARY 2012

RELIANCE EOD CHART 11 JAN 2012

TATAMOTORS EOD CHART 11 JAN 2012

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Posted By Laloo Laal to Team Stock Researchers Pvt. Ltd. at 1/11/2012 07:02:00 PM

[T.S.R:18221] Re: I AM FREE NOW

2012-01-11T04:18:00.001-08:00

hi
I felt pressure to be the bread winner for my family I took my chances with this I wasnt feeling like myself!
http://kamilamalawska.home.pl/currentevents/47TimothyJones/ now I vacation four times a year
the sky is the limit!
ttyl.

[T.S.R:18220] BLKashyap-Marquee Names Corner 12 Per Cent Equity

2012-01-10T23:12:00.000-08:00

1	ICICI Prudential Emerging Star (Stock Trade at returns) Fund	3,684,461	1.79
2	ICICI Prudential Discovery Fund	4,933,398	2.40
3	Citigroup Global Markets Mauritius Pvt Ltd	2,470,340	1.20
4	ACACIA Institutional Partners LP	3,055,220	1.49
5	ACACIA Partners LP	5,460,000	2.66
6	Bajaj Allianz Life Insurance Company Ltd	4,875,103	2.37
	Total	24,478,522	11.92

Safe Harbor Statement:

Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

[T.S.R:18219] IVRCL-Citi Backs The New Structure Puts A Target of Rs 48

2012-01-10T22:57:00.001-08:00

IVRCL/Hindustan Dorr Oliver-BUY

Water infrastructure is one of the core business areas for IVRCL. It undertakes projects such as distribution systems, pumping and re-circulation systems, O&M, irrigation works, canal works, sewage systems, treatment plants and recycling plants. It has also taken up the ~Rs4.9bn Chennai water desalination plant.

IVRCL's subsidiary Hindustan Dorr Oliver (HDO) is a leading EPC company in water and waste water management. The company's solutions in the space include water pumping, conveyance, water treatment, recycle technologies, sewage treatment, industrial effluent treatment, desalination works and distribution. HDO has entered into the following technology tie-ups in the water management space – (1) Acquatech (USA) for RO Plant; (2) SFC (Austria) for SBR; and (3) GE Infra (Canada) for water reuse-recycle technologies.

HDO has undertaken water management and effluent treatment for all major refineries in India in the past five years. Its newly acquired Davy Markham business also caters to the power generation segment for water control systems.

Valuation

We value IVRCL shares at Rs48 based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) methodology given its broad business profile. We value the core construction business at Rs33/share based on 6x Dec-12E, a discount to our target P/E multiple for Larsen and Toubro, justified in our view given the difference in scale and skill sets. We value the HDO stake at Rs3/share and the IVR Prime Urban stake at Rs12/share based on current market capitalization and by applying a 30% holding company discount.

Risks

Key downside risks which could prevent the shares from reaching our target price include: 1) Longer-than-expected delays in execution of AP irrigation projects, 2) Lower-than-expected order inflows, 3) Increasing commodity prices. Key upside risks include: 1) Availability of funding with AP government, 2) Faster execution of projects, 3) Better-than-expected order inflows, and 4) Higher-than-expected margins.

Safe Harbor Statement:

Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

[T.S.R:18218] ICRA - IC - SPA Sec - Jan'12.

2012-01-10T20:05:00.001-08:00

FYI.

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[T.S.R:18217] Hind Dorr-A True Blue Water Stock (Citibank)

2012-01-10T19:03:00.001-08:00

Citibank

Hind Dorr-Return To An MNC status will make this blue water stock a multi-bagger

IVRCL has put it's 53 per cent stake in HDO up for sale-the company could be bagged by one of the MNC players in the Fresh Water, Water Recycling business.

IVRCL's subsidiary Hindustan Dorr Oliver (HDO) is a leading EPC company in water

and waste water management. The company's solutions in the space include water

pumping, conveyance, water treatment, recycle technologies, sewage treatment,

industrial effluent treatment, desalination works and distribution.

HDO has entered into the following technology tie-ups in the water management space – (1)Acquatech (USA) for RO Plant; (2) SFC (Austria) for SBR; and (3) GE Infra (Canada) for water reuse-recycle technologies.

HDO has undertaken water management and effluent treatment for all major

refineries in India in the past five years. Its newly acquired Davy Markham business

also caters to the power generation segment for water control systems.

India's water demand set to rise… —

Although India has been endowed with large freshwater resources, recent overdrawing of ground water has resulted in a strain on its resources. Key factors driving India's water usage include: (1) Fast population growth; (2) Traditional and inefficient agricultural practices; (3) Populist political practices (free power leading to over-drawing of ground water via pumps); (4) Rising urbanization and shift in consumption patterns to more water-intensive products like showers and automatic washing machines; and (5) Rapid industrial growth in hinterland, necessitating requirement of freshwater.



…driving increased investments in the sector — The water sector in India is a ~US$2.5bn industry (in 2007), and is expected to grow (Fig 13) to US$6.9bn by 2016. The sector, being highly localized in nature, assumes particular importance in the context of rising competition from Asian and global companies in India's infrastructure and industrial capex opportunity. VA Tech Wabag (VTW) management estimate it takes ~2-3 years to enter a new market due to entry barriers such as: (1) Political and bureaucratic environment: (2) Regulatory framework; and (3) Competitive landscape.

[T.S.R:18216] [Team Stock Researchers Pvt. Ltd.] 1/10/2012 07:03:00 PM

2012-01-10T05:33:00.001-08:00

Nifty EOD Chart 09 JANUARY 2012

RELIANCE EOD CHART 10 JAN 2012

TATAMOTORS EOD CHART 10 JAN 2012

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Posted By Laloo Laal to Team Stock Researchers Pvt. Ltd. at 1/10/2012 07:03:00 PM

[T.S.R:18215] Suashish Diamonds-EPS Rs 20, Investments Exceed Market Cap By Rs 200 crore

2012-01-09T22:03:00.000-08:00

Suashish Diamonds-An Opportunity That Seeks Attention

A De Beers/DTC Sightholder

-Promoter Equity 90 per cent

-Public Holding 10 per cent, out of which Religare holds 5 lakh shares and corporate bodies the balance.

-Company has to delist or comply with public holding norm of 25 per cent by June 2013.

-Current Market Cap Rs 200 crore

-Estimated FY12 EPS Rs 25

-Estimated PE 4

-Company through Mr. Ashish Goenka made an offer to BUY the 10 per cent public Equity at Rs 210 per share or double the current price.

-As of March 2011 Suashish Diamonds has investments in liquid corporate debt of Rs 400 crore or twice the current market capitalisation in cash equivalents.

-Return on these investments alone work out to atleast Rs 10 per share.

-The promoters can now make another attempt to delist as 1 year has lapsed over the previous offer, and at current price it will cost them just Rs 20 crore to delist the company.

-The Book value should however exceed Rs 300 and investors must take small exposure for this possibility.

Safe Harbor Statement:

Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.