Brokers reports,Intraday calls,Nifty free calls,Free intraday,stbt calls,btst trades .....: August 2011

Tuesday, August 30, 2011

[T.S.R:17785] [Team Stock Researchers Pvt. Ltd.] 8/31/2011 08:20:00 AM

Nifty EOD Chart 30 August 2011

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Posted By Laloo Laal to Team Stock Researchers Pvt. Ltd. at 8/31/2011 08:20:00 AM

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Monday, August 29, 2011

[T.S.R:17781] [Team Stock Researchers Pvt. Ltd.] 8/29/2011 08:24:00 PM

Nifty EOD Chart 29 August 2011

RELIANCE EOD CHART 29 AUG 2011

TATAMOTORS EOD CHART 29 AUG 2011

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Posted By Laloo Laal to Team Stock Researchers Pvt. Ltd. at 8/29/2011 08:24:00 PM

Sunday, August 28, 2011

[T.S.R:17780] India; DOWNGRADING FY13 Earnings (Morgan Stanley)

Morgan Stanley

India Equities Research

What are the risks to earnings? What is the impact of potential funding stress?

Worse, Tail risks not in the price

The known "unknowns" are an uncertain DM world, weak domestic policy response, oil prices, inflation, high rates, slowing growth, and alleged corruption scandals. During the 2008 crisis, Indian earnings outperformed, but equities fell due to a large outflow of capital. A recession with no seizing up of capital markets is India's best case in the context. Massive global stimulus or a breakdown in capital markets will hurt India on a relative basis a la 2008.

Key Debate: We have cut our global and India GDP growth forecasts. What's the impact on earnings and how much is in the price?

F2013 Sensex earnings cut by 3ppt to 15%

Reflexivity is at work – lower share prices are affecting growth and vice versa. F2012 earnings growth forecast is unchanged at 18%. Consensus is expecting 20% and 17% growth for F2012 and F2013, respectively. Earnings have support from decade-low gross margins and strong balance sheets, but face headwinds from fragile global growth. We think broad market earnings growth may have troughed.

Sensex target implies returns of 11% to Dec-11 and 35% to Dec-12

Following the cut in absolute targets by our fellow strategists, notably on EM and AXJ, our new Sensex target for Dec-11 is down 15% to 18,850. We roll out our Dec-12 target at 22,750. The Dec-12 target implies P/E multiples of 18x and 16x on F2012 and F2013 earnings, respectively.

Key Positives for Indian equities



Corporate activity is surging.



Policy announcements have picked up pace.



The sowing season is going well, and this is good news for prospective rural incomes and food inflation.



Valuations look compelling on an absolute basis.



Interest rates could be peaking.

Our proprietary sentiment and market timing indicators are firmly perched in buy zone. What to buy and sell; still a stock picker's market

We remain focused on domestic cyclicals versus global cyclicals with emphasis on discretionary names. Our top picks include DRRD, INFO and MM.

Safe Harbor Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.

Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

[T.S.R:17779] India: Capitulating Upon Industrials (Morgan Stanley)

Morgan Stanley

India Equities Research

Adding to Consumer Discretionary, Cutting Industrials; JP & LNT Get Thrown Off The Window

We are capitulating on Industrials. We have been completely wrong about what's priced in. Slower global growth may feed to the negative investment environment, as indicated by Chetan Ahya in his recent GDP downgrade note. The AlphaWise evidence points to downside risks to capex in the coming 12 months. While stocks are cheap, they are unlikely to make headway in such an environment. The risk to downgrading so late is that rates may be peaking and we know Industrial stocks tend to trough with peaking rates. We are cutting Industrials to neutral.

This has been an ongoing theme for us since May-11. Peaking rates and strong incomes are supporting top-line growth, a fragile world puts in place the possibility of margin improvement via tempered commodity price increases. Our latest AlphaWise survey of Corporate India (see Sheela Rathi's report entitled, India AlphaWise Evidence Series India Corporate Survey: Capex Caution but Hiring Hails..., dated August 19, 2011) underpins the strong wage growth the country is likely to witness in the coming 12 months and, consequently, robust consumption. We are raising Consumer Discretionary by 200bp.

Focus List Changes: Adding BJAT, COAL; Removing LT, JPA

First, we continue to like mid-caps over large caps. We continue to focus on discretionary consumption and add BJAT to our Focus List. While we take profits in LT, we have lost on JPA – we do not see triggers to take the stock off its "deep value" status, as evidenced by our latest AlphaWise study. We are also adding Coal India back to our Focus List given the company's relatively secure earnings stream, strong balance sheet and the stock's reasonable valuations.

Focus List and Sector Model Portfolio Performance

Year to date, our sector model portfolio has underperformed the MSCI India index by 106bp and our Focus List has underperformed the BSE Sensex by 106bp. We are overweight Consumer Discretionary, Energy, Technology, and Utilities, and underweight Consumer Staples, Materials, Healthcare, and Financials. We are neutral on Telecoms and Industrials.

Safe Harbor Statement:

Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

[T.S.R:17778] India: Clutching At Straws (Citigroup)

Citigroup

Global Equities Research

India: Barely Hanging In!

+5%: in line with expectations, but with a weak bias — India's earnings

growth continues to tread middle growth: +5%yoy for Sensex ex-oil (and 6% for

CIRA ex-energy) remains in-line with expectations (+7%), relatively modest and

simply not decisive enough. It has a slightly weak bias: 52/45 downside/upside

surprises, more sectors disappoint than surprise positively, and management

commentary at aggregate has been relatively cautious. While bottom up and

global macro challenges rise, India's earnings growth expectations (20%)

continue to hang on, but just about.

 Sales still surprise and margins still face pressure — We expected sales

growth to surprise on the downside, and margin pressure to surprise on the

upside: was not to be. Sales momentum remains strong (+19% for CIRA univ exfin,

energy) and margins continue to face pressure (-74 bps qoq). However,

sectoral divergence is rising, interest cost pressures are yet to show up

meaningfully and trends among Sensex companies and broader CIRA coverage

are largely consistent – suggesting growth/profit trends are broad-based.

 More laggards than leaders — It is a mixed quarter, with a weak bias: with 6/3

downside/upside sectoral surprises, 12/15 sectors generating positive yoy profit

growth, and only four sectors generating positive margins qoq. The banks and

Capital goods sectors have been the big laggards on the downside: with positive

offsets in Energy (in part accounting), and Metals and Cements. The defensives

– consumer companies have held their own, while Autos have also done a bit

better than expected.

 Quarter's take-away; it's tough but corporates hanging in there — The

earnings season is – in our view – not decisive. It reflects the broader growth,

profitability and global macro challenges that businesses are facing; but suggests

slower/weaker growth, not an earnings collapse. Our Sensex earnings growth

estimates for FY12/FY13 stand at 20%/16%, and we would expect GDP growth,

the commodity and energy pricing cycle to keenly influence earnings trends from

here.

Safe Harbor Statement:

Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

[T.S.R:17777] RIL-Seeking Vibhishana?

RIL-In Deep Waters

"Always keep your friends close, but keep your enemies even closer"..Don Vito Corleone, The Godfather

While Sicilian mafioso's have lived and practiced this adage for decades, so popularised to phantasmic proportions by Mario Puzo. Indians have have been nurtured on the ideologically correct but emotional deceit of Vibhishana. In the much younger days of this writer it was a known fact that RIL had mastered the Art Of Corporate Intelligence. So strong was gathering of information, that while everything a competitor did was chronicled with documentary proof, the fact that the demonic sword hung somewhere terrorised business houses that ever attempted to hold out against RIL.

But a sword always cuts both ways. So, while the evidence that was needed and used to destroy the ADAG group existed, similar evidence to destroy RIL perceivably also exists. The KG D6 basin extends into some 2000 sq kms of deep sea. Over a span of 2 decades extent of over-capitalisation aided and abetted by the MOPNG, DGH and even CAG existed in the realms of possibility. The siphoning over 2 decades was collectively whispered at over $10 bn, an amount that was laundered through more than 200 companies of the group to help one clansman to raise his Equity stake in RIL to over 50 per cent.

True or untrue no one knows. Except that in it's new found "Avatar" the CAG has noticeably woken to corruption and doctoring of accounts. Something that was mandated for them from inception but conveniently ignored for decades. Now that another General Election looms large and movements like those of "Anna" herald an Indian Summer, the increasingly distressed Centre is trying to squeeze out businesses including RIL.

To be fair commentators like Gurumurthy and Gurudas Kamat had pointed at RIL cooking books for decades but to no avail. Nowhere did the lay investor understood that the ballooning KG expense was only meant to deny profit petroleum or revenue sharing to the country for existing pricing policies had assured RIL that nothing need be shared till the corporate recovered as much as 6 times the capitalisation of KG.

So while the GOI could control the gas price for KG they could do nothing about Revenue share. If the black hole in RIL comes out to be as large as what the CAG now claims, investors can kiss a four digit price for the RIL stock for decades to come. Instead they could see lower 3 digit price in a very short time.

What one wonders is whether Vibhishana is once again siding with the GOI, to destroy Ravana? Time will tell.

Safe Harbor Statement:

Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

[T.S.R:17776] RIL-A Case Of Flatulence Without Gas

The output from Reliance Industries-operated D6 block, India's biggest gas-fields, dropped by almost 26 per cent in July from the peak 60 mscmd in end-2009. Output from the East Coast fields in July averaged 44 mscmd.

Reliance's partner in the block Niko Resources Ltd said the declines are expected to continue until workovers are completed and/or additional wells are tied-in.

The drop in output would mean that gas consuming industries benefiting from the fields will have to depend on the expensive imported gas. While the imported gas is available at $8.4/mBtu and $14/mBtu (excluding other levies and taxes), D6 gas is available at $4.2/mBtu (excluding the levies and taxes).

Recently, the Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas, Mr S Jaipal Reddy, informed the Lok Sabha that the average gas output during April-June 2011 from the block was 48.60 mscmd against the production profile of 70.39 mscmd under the approved field development plan for the period.

India's gas output down

Declining D6 output has also led to a fall in the country's domestic gas output for the eighth straight month in July by 8.2 per cent to 4.14 billion cubic metre (4.5 bcm).

In order to enhance D6 production, the contractors have been advised by the Directorate General of Hydrocarbons to drill more wells. Reliance Industries has drilled two more wells in the block since July, sources said adding each well costs around $50-100 million. To check the drop in production, Reliance has roped in BP, to gain from the British firm's deepwater expertise.

Meanwhile, the country's crude oil output in July continued to rise for the 20th straight month by 1.4 per cent to 3.3 million tonne. This surge was because of increasing output from Cairn India operated Rajasthan oilfields.

Safe Harbor Statement:

Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

[T.S.R:17783] Introduction of Futures and Options on Global Indices on NSE

Introduction of Futures and Options on Global Indices on NSE

As per SEBI guideline and permission, NSE is set to launch Futures and Options contracts on " S&P 500" and only futures contracts on "Dow Jones Industrial Average" (DJIA).

Now instead of Tracking these indices and taking queue over here, we might as well trade on such indices or hedge on such indices.

Before discussing the impact of such indices, let us understand its features.


	S & P 500	DJIA

How it will show on NSE F&O Screen	FUTIDX S&P500	FUTIDX DJIA

Lot Size	250	25

No of Contracts available	6	6
	M1, M2, M3,Q2,Q3,Q4	M1, M2, M3, Q2,Q3,Q4

Expiry	3rd Friday of Every Month	3rd Friday of Every Month

Last Trading Day	Same day as Expiration	Same day as Expiration

Settlement	Cash Settlement	Cash Settlement

Underlying Currency	Indian Rupees	Indian Rupees

Types of Option	European	Not available

Margins	Span Margin	Span Margin

Settlement Price	Opening Price of S&P 500 on CME	Opening Price of DJIA on CME

There are several Advantages of trading in Global Indices in India They are mentioned as below

If you are interested in details, do visit the blog at

http://gandhijigam.blogspot.com/

Regards

Saturday, August 27, 2011

[T.S.R:17783] Enam - EOW

Regards,

-Apoorva

Friday, August 26, 2011

[T.S.R:17775] ANNA-spread it like fire......

Summary of All scams of India : Rs. 910603234300000/-

See how Lokpal Bill can curb the politicians, Circulate it to create awareness

Existing System

System Proposed by civil society

No politician or senior officer ever goes to jail despite huge evidence because Anti Corruption Branch (ACB) and CBI directly come under the government. Before starting investigation or prosecution in any case, they have to take permission from the same bosses, against whom the case has to be investigated.

Lokpal at centre and Lokayukta at state level will be independent bodies. ACB and CBI will be merged into these bodies. They will have power to initiate investigations and prosecution against any officer or politician without needing anyone's permission. Investigation should be completed within 1 year and trial to get over in next 1 year. Within two years, the corrupt should go to jail.

No corrupt officer is dismissed from the job because Central Vigilance Commission, which is supposed to dismiss corrupt officers, is only an advisory body. Whenever it advises government to dismiss any senior corrupt officer, its advice is never implemented.

Lokpal and Lokayukta will have complete powers to order dismissal of a corrupt officer. CVC and all departmental vigilance will be merged into Lokpal and state vigilance will be merged into Lokayukta.

No action is taken against corrupt judges because permission is required from the Chief Justice of India to even register an FIR against corrupt judges.

Lokpal & Lokayukta shall have powers to investigate and prosecute any judge without needing anyone's permission.

Nowhere to go - People expose corruption but no action is taken on their complaints.

Lokpal & Lokayukta will have to enquire into and hear every complaint.

There is so much corruption within CBI and vigilance departments. Their functioning is so secret that it encourages corruption within these agencies.

All investigations in Lokpal & Lokayukta shall be transparent. After completion of investigation, all case records shall be open to public. Complaint against any staff of Lokpal & Lokayukta shall be enquired and punishment announced within two months.

Weak and corrupt people are appointed as heads of anti-corruption agencies.

Politicians will have absolutely no say in selections of Chairperson and members of Lokpal & Lokayukta. Selections will take place through a transparent and public participatory process.

Citizens face harassment in government offices. Sometimes they are forced to pay bribes. One can only complaint to senior officers. No action is taken on complaints because senior officers also get their cut.

Lokpal & Lokayukta will get public grievances resolved in time bound manner, impose a penalty of Rs 250 per day of delay to be deducted from the salary of guilty officer and award that amount as compensation to the aggrieved citizen.

Nothing in law to recover ill gotten wealth. A corrupt person can come out of jail and enjoy that money.

Loss caused to the government due to corruption will be recovered from all accused.

Small punishment for corruption- Punishment for corruption is minimum 6 months and maximum 7 years.

Enhanced punishment - The punishment would be minimum 5 years and maximum of life imprisonment.

Spread it like fire; Our Nation needs us... Please Contribute... This is not just a forward, it's the future of our Nation.

Please do not print this email unless it is absolutely necessary.

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Please don't burn or bury your eyes..
Donate them..

They can give sight to two blind people..

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Hiren Padia,
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Team StockResearchers Private Limited,
Rajkot
09327744250
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[T.S.R:17774] [Team Stock Researchers Pvt. Ltd.] 8/26/2011 08:01:00 PM

Nifty EOD Chart 25 August 2011

RELIANCE EOD CHART 26 AUG 2011

TATAMOTORS EOD CHART 26 AUG 2011

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Posted By Laloo Laal to Team Stock Researchers Pvt. Ltd. at 8/26/2011 08:01:00 PM

Thursday, August 25, 2011

[T.S.R:17773] Wells Fargo-The World Stares At A Massive Probability Of Recession

Are We Headed for Global Recession?

The global economy is in its most challenging environment since the global downturn ended in mid-2009. We wrote in a recent report that we are not yet forecasting a renewed downturn in the U.S. economy.

5 Nor are we projecting a global recession either, at least not yet. The recent declines in manufacturing PMIs in most economies are certainly worrying, and economic activity will probably soften further over the next few months. However, a renewed global downturn need not ensue. Although the present economic and financial situation may appear grim, there are some offsets that may help to support global economic activity.

Policymakers in the advanced economies may have limited options to respond to renewed economic weakness. Policy interest rates in most major economies are close to the zero percent bound, and fiscal loosening is arguably constrained by large budget deficits. However, developing

economies, which in aggregate account for one-third of global GDP, up from 20 percent about a decade ago, generally have policy flexibility. For example, the Chinese central bank, which has raised its benchmark 12-month lending rate by 125 bps since last October, could easily reverse

course especially if, as we project, CPI inflation recedes in the coming months, and the Chinese government could direct banks to accelerate lending again (Figure 8). Central banks in many other developing countries have tightened this year, and they have scope to ease policy to bolster

growth.

In addition, government deficits in many developing economies are generally under control at present, so fiscal policy could turn expansionary. Developing countries are not large enough to drive global GDP growth, but expansionary economic policies, in combination with the offsets noted above, could help to shore up global economic activity as advanced economies transition through the current soft patch.

Although we are not calling for a renewed global recession, there are significant downside risks to keep in mind. First, consumers and businesses are not oblivious to the recent volatility in financial markets, and their psyches probably have been bruised. If consumers and businesses turn defensive, spending could weaken significantly. Second, the European debt crisis continues to fester. Wholesale selling of government bonds in highly indebted European countries could lead to another financial crisis. Third, growth is barely positive at present in some advanced economies, making them very vulnerable to unforeseen shocks (e.g., a spike in energy prices, a natural disaster, a major terrorist attack, etc.).

Even if the global economy should get through the next few months without falling into recession again, the outlook for growth in 2012 is not very strong. With governments in most major economies embarking on fiscal consolidation measures and with consumers in some of these countries needing to deleverage further, it likely will be years before the global economy returns to the heady days of 2004—2007 when global GDP growth averaged 5 percent per annum.

Safe Harbor Statement:

Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

[T.S.R:17772] CLSA Flays India Earnings, Sensex Targets For CY11 and CY12

CLSA

India Downgraded

Banks, Utilities, Information Technology, Infra will see massive earnings downgrades in the coming quarters.

While the sharp correction in the market may suggest attractive valuations, we note that the pace of corporate earnings downgrades has intensified in the recent results season. We see downside risk to bottomup derived 15% earnings cagr over FY11-13 and even greater risk to the street estimates as we are 3-5% below consensus. We lower 12-m Sensex multiple to 13x to factor in the earnings downgrade risk.

We increase our Under-weight on banks, industrials

The sectors that look vulnerable to earnings are PSU banks (asset quality concerns), industrials (slower order flow), private utilities (lower utilisation rates

and fuel availability)

We cut industrials to UWT by removing L&T from the model portfolio. The stock has held-up well despite the ordering slowdown and we see greater risks to its

earnings / multiples. The slowdown in the investment cycle will impact banks' earnings through lower credit growth and uptick in NPLs. We increase our UWT on banks by taking off 2 points from Bank of Baroda.

To maintain our UWT on IT, we have taken out e-Clerx. The stock has O-PF the markets by 20% since its inclusion in Jan-11.

We are taking out Adani Power as we see downside earnings risk on account of continued fuel shortages and Indonesia coal costs. Replacing with more defensive

Power grid. We also bring in JSPL as the stock has corrected by c.20% over the last one month and downside appears limited.

Pace of earnings downgrades has intensified

We have lower FY12 and FY13 Sensex EPS estimates by 5.6% and 10.6% respectively since the beginning of CY11.

The pace of downgrades have increased during the recent result season with a downgrade of 3% and 5% respectively. This also indicates that the there would be

more downside to our FY11-13 earnings cagr of 15%.

Downgrades so far have been driven by margin disappointments and revenues have held up well, which could be at risk going forward. We also saw interest cost

led downgrades in 1QFY12 for the first time and full impact is yet to be seen.

We are 3-5% below consensus

Our new FY12 & FY13 Sensex EPS of 1,181 and 1,338 are 3% and 5% lower than the street (Bloomberg consensus) respectively.

On the negative side, our estimates are substantially below street on cement cos, telcos, Pantaloon, Suzlon Maruti, Tata motors and HCL Tech and believe that the

consensus will likely see more earnings downgrades.

Lower 12-m Sensex multiple

Lower target multiple builds in the risks associated with more earnings downgrade.

Key downside risk remains faster slowdown of growth while the near-term upside risk would be potential loose monetary policy in the west.

We will continue to stay cautious on the markets till we see some evidence of investment demand picking-up.

Safe Harbor Statement:

Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

[T.S.R:17771] Money Matters-Will Sebi Look Into Manipulation Of The Stock Price

Money Matters-A Stock Worth Investigating By Sebi Surveillance

-After making an all time high of Rs 787 in Oct2010, the stock plunged to Rs 48 in June2011.

-Promoters announced a Buy-Back of 17.5 lakh shares using creeping acquisition and indeed bought the stock from the open market.

-The shareholding pattern of June 2011 shows that Fidelity quit it's entire holding in the stock at possibly the lowest price.

-For the past 3 quarters the company has been reporting successively abysmal results.

-And yet in the past month alone the stock has hit 5-10 upper circuits and 5-10 lower circuits, first raising the stock price from Rs 48 to Rs 120 and now back to Rs 78.

-Someone is going to lose big in this game of stock manipulation.

-The non-promoter stocks are held with what appear as construction companies or small financiers.

-It is possible that these few companies might be manipulating the circuit limits to suck in investors and dump stock.

-Even if Sebi takes no action, in public interest this stock should be immediately moved into the "T" Group.

Safe Harbor Statement:

Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

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Tuesday, August 30, 2011

[T.S.R:17785] [Team Stock Researchers Pvt. Ltd.] 8/31/2011 08:20:00 AM

[T.S.R:17782] UPDATES

Monday, August 29, 2011

[T.S.R:17781] [Team Stock Researchers Pvt. Ltd.] 8/29/2011 08:24:00 PM

Sunday, August 28, 2011

[T.S.R:17780] India; DOWNGRADING FY13 Earnings (Morgan Stanley)

[T.S.R:17779] India: Capitulating Upon Industrials (Morgan Stanley)

[T.S.R:17778] India: Clutching At Straws (Citigroup)

[T.S.R:17777] RIL-Seeking Vibhishana?

[T.S.R:17776] RIL-A Case Of Flatulence Without Gas

[T.S.R:17783] Introduction of Futures and Options on Global Indices on NSE

Introduction of Futures and Options on Global Indices on NSE

Saturday, August 27, 2011

[T.S.R:17783] Enam - EOW

Friday, August 26, 2011

[T.S.R:17775] ANNA-spread it like fire......

[T.S.R:17774] [Team Stock Researchers Pvt. Ltd.] 8/26/2011 08:01:00 PM

Thursday, August 25, 2011

[T.S.R:17773] Wells Fargo-The World Stares At A Massive Probability Of Recession

[T.S.R:17772] CLSA Flays India Earnings, Sensex Targets For CY11 and CY12

[T.S.R:17771] Money Matters-Will Sebi Look Into Manipulation Of The Stock Price

TSR LONG TERM REPORTS DATABASE

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Sunday, August 28, 2011

Saturday, August 27, 2011

Friday, August 26, 2011

Thursday, August 25, 2011

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