Brokers reports,Intraday calls,Nifty free calls,Free intraday,stbt calls,btst trades .....: April 2011

Friday, April 29, 2011

[T.S.R:17269] [Team Stock Researchers Pvt. Ltd.] 4/29/2011 08:06:00 PM

Nifty EOD Chart 29 APRIL 2011

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Thursday, April 28, 2011

[T.S.R:17268] Modern Dairies: What When The Milk Runs Dry? Are CDR's Disguised NPAs or Plain Bad Debts?

Very few kids growing up in the 1980s and the 1990s in India are acquainted with the concept of a milk shortage. The main reason for this is the success of the four-decade-old Operation Flood, the dairy development program started by India's National Dairy Development Board (NDDB) in 1970. One of the largest of its kind, the program's objective was to create a nationwide milk grid. It resulted in making India the largest producer of milk and milk products in 1998.

So, when NDDB chairman Amrita Patel painted a different picture while speaking at a national gathering of the dairy industry last month, it grabbed national headlines.

According to Patel, rising incomes have led to a shift away from cereals to vegetables, milk and meat. While milk production has so far been able to meet demand by growing at 3.5 million tons a year or 4%, it will now have to grow at 6% to keep up. Efforts to increase production have proved unsuccessful as the industry struggles with poor quality animal feeds, low yields and poorly bred cattle.

This was followed by a warning by the Economic Survey, a fortnight later, that unless production increased from 112 million tons to 180 million tons a year (an annual increase of 5.5%) in the next decade, India will need to import milk. The Survey also said that the recent spurt in milk prices does not bode well.

What ails the dairy industry and does India have a plan up its sleeve?

India's dairy industry has chosen to follow a disaggregated production model. This means that large cattle farms using scientific milking techniques are few. Individual producers, who own a small herd and supply it to co-operatives, together with private dairies, account for 20% of the milk produced in India. The unorganized sector comprises the remaining 80%.

The co-operative model harks back to the days when capital was scarce and private enterprise frowned upon. "It has resulted in milk getting the highest price realization among agri products, with 70% of the price paid by the consumer going to the original producer," says R.G. Chandramogan, chairman and managing director of Hatsun Agro Product, the largest private dairy in India based in Chennai.

But at the same time, individual farmers inevitably lack the means to invest in improving cattle yields. Parithibhai Bhatol, chairman of the Gujarat Cooperative Milk Marketing Federation (GCMMF), which sells milk products under the Amul brand name, says he can only borrow money at 10-12% interest as against the 4% interest that is given to farmers. Many GCMMF members have held back their expansion plans because of the high cost of capital, says Parthibhai.

Fodder prices have risen from Rs. 4,500 per ton to Rs. 7,000 per ton in the past two years, creating another disincentive for producers to expand, according to N.R. Bhasin, president of the Indian Dairy Association. Exports of oilcakes, a key fodder input, crossed Rs. 10,000 crore last fiscal.

Patel estimates that while the demand for fodder is about 30 million tons, only about 15 millions tons are available. At times like these, many producers usually resort to feeding cattle leftover feed from their farms, which lowers yields further.

Productivity of Indian cattle is between 800 and 1,000 liters of milk per animal per year as compared to between 7,000 and 8,000 liters per year for the best varieties around the world, according to Pankaj Gupta, practice head, consumer and retail, Tata Strategic Management Group.

In the past two years, milk prices have risen by 13-15% a year to Rs. 28 to Rs. 30 a liter, with some states increasing prices every month. The government banned exports of milk and milk products this February in order to tide over the present shortfall; a move that was opposed by the industry.

"We are not for or against an export ban. What we are against is an inconsistency in government policy," says Devendra Shah, chairman of Parag Milk Foods, a Pune-based company. According to him, it hinders the industry's ability to plan ahead.

For now, the government realizes that increasing milk production will require its active support and has formulated a National Dairy Plan that aims to double production in the next 15 years. Rs. 1,584 crore has been earmarked for the first phase, which kicks off later this year once approvals are received.

Improving cattle varieties by breeding them through artificial insemination forms the cornerstone of the plan. In the next five years, these cattle breeding centers aim to produce 550 high genetic merit bulls a year. At present, 45 million farmers make use of artificial insemination. This will be expanded to 95 million in the next five years.

To shift production away from the unorganized sector that consists of farmers with a few cattle, the Plan aims at increasing the organized sector's share to 60%, allowing for expanding processing facilities.

Lastly, it is the extension, education and delivery of services to the milk producers at their doorstep that will be the real challenge, said Patel, speaking at the convention. The National Dairy Plan is still working on addressing this.

Safe Harbor Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.

Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

[T.S.R:17267] Crude@130-How Severe Is The Hit To India? Isn't Bombay vastly over-valued?

FYI

Safe Harbor Statement:

Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

[T.S.R:17266] BoB, ICICI & LIC Housing Finance

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[T.S.R:17264] PERFORMANCE OF 28.04..2011'S TRADING CALL@TEAM STOCKRESEARCHERS @ www.niftyviews.com / http://smscalls.blogspot.com/

PERFORMANCE OF 28.04..2011'S TRADING CALL@TEAM STOCKRESEARCHERS @
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INTRADAY FUTURES +1750 rs PROFIT PER 1 Lot of Trading.Charges 7000 for 2 months.
TSR NIFTY ( +0) POINTS IN JUST 1 LOT.Charges 4000 for 2 months
INTRADAY OPTIONS = -0 /1LOT.Charges 4500 for 2 months.

Here are the trading calls given by Team Stock researchers to its premium clients today.Its intra/futs/nifty futs /options service.Calls are sent by both sms and yahoo messenger.All are live calls.We dont give premarket calls.
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CASH CALLS

1calls given ,1 tgt done,0 SL taken , 1 exited at cost

Short ACC fut/cash 1108 -07stoploss 1122 target 1094-1088

EXITED AT COST

Buy ABB fut/cash 871-872 stoploss 858 target 885-894

TGT DONE

NIFTY CALLS:

Buy may month Nifty fut 5800-5805 with stoploss 5770 target we will update tomorrow.

total : 0 points profit

TOTALPOINTS COVERED= +0

OPTIONS CALLS:

NO CALLS GENERATED

TOTAL PROFIT = -0 /TRADING OF 1 LOT

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[T.S.R:17264] PERFORMANCE OF 27.04..2011'S TRADING CALL@TEAM STOCKRESEARCHERS @ www.niftyviews.com / http://smscalls.blogspot.com/

PERFORMANCE OF 27.04..2011'S TRADING CALL@TEAM STOCKRESEARCHERS @
www.niftyviews.com / http://smscalls.blogspot.com/

INTRADAY FUTURES +1500 rs PROFIT PER 1 Lot of Trading.Charges 7000 for 2 months.
TSR NIFTY ( +0) POINTS IN JUST 1 LOT.Charges 4000 for 2 months
INTRADAY OPTIONS = -200RS/1LOT.Charges 4500 for 2 months.

Here are the trading calls given by Team Stock researchers to its premium clients today.Its intra/futs/nifty futs /options service.Calls are sent by both sms and yahoo messenger.All are live calls.We dont give premarket calls.
Yahoo messenger id- NIFTYVIEWSCOM
Google talk support id- Contact@niftyviews.com

for payment details OR any further query email to contact@niftyviews.com

CASH CALLS

5calls given ,3 tgt done,1 SL taken , 1 exited at cost

BUY ORCHID 315-315.5 SL 311 TGT 319-323

tgt done

BUY SASKEN 180-181 SL 176 TGT 185-189

exited at 178

BUY KRBL 32 SL 30.5 TGT 34-36

exited at 32.5

short ACC fut/cash 1111=1112 stoploss 1131 target 1090-1080

booked at 1106

buy delta corp 95.5 stoploss 94 target 97-98

booked at 94.5

NIFTY CALLS:

NO CALLS

total : 0 points profit

TOTALPOINTS COVERED= +31

OPTIONS CALLS:
1)BUY NIFTY 5800CE NEAR 82-84 SL 70 TGT LATER

Exit Nifty future 5800 CE now at 77.5

LOSS=200RS

TOTAL PROFIT = -200RS /TRADING OF 1 LOT

[T.S.R:17263] Barrick Buys Equinox-More Consolidation Gold Higher Than $1540/oz

Mining company Barrick Gold Corp. said Monday it has agreed to buy Equinox Minerals Ltd. for about $7.7 billion (7.3 billion Canadian dollars) in cash, topping a rival's offer earlier this month.

The purchase price is $8.57 (8.15 Canadian dollars) per share. That's a 9 percent premium to Equinox Minerals' last trade last week. It's also 16 percent higher than China's Minmetals Resources Ltd. offered earlier this month.

Barrick Gold ( ABX - news - people ), already the world's biggest gold miner, said the deal will put it in position for significant copper production growth in Chile, a country with some of the world's most promising copper-producing regions.

Equinox's flagship asset is the Lumwana copper mine in Zambia, one of the largest new copper mines to be developed globally over the last few years. It is also developing another copper mine in the Middle East.

Barrick CEO Aaron Regent described the takeover bid as an opportunity to gain access to the rich Zambian copper belt at a time when copper prices are seen rising further from already record levels.

"I'd say there is scarcity in opportunities like this," Regent said during a conference call to explain his company's rationale for the deal. "These types of assets rarely become available on the market."

The deal was unanimously supported by the Equinox board. Both Barrick Gold and Equinox are based in Toronto.

Equinox has agreed to pay a termination fee of about $263 million (250 million Canadian dollars) if it backs out of the deal.

Equinox has agreed to withdraw its takeover offer to buy Canada's Lundin Mining ( LMC - news - people ) Corp., which it just extended last week. Equinox had been repeatedly criticized for the amount of money it needed to borrow to make the previous offer, which would have consisted of a maximum of $2.5 billion (2.4 billion Canadian dollars) in cash and 380 million in shares.

Equinox has also agreed not to solicit other offers, but is entitled to consider any acquisition proposals made by third parties.

Equinox shares rose 87 Canadian cents, more than 11 percent, to 8.37 Canadian dollars in morning trading Monday on the Toronto Stock Exchange. Barrick stock was down 2.71 Canadian dollars, or 5 percent, at 52.36 Canadian dollars.

The deal for Equinox is expected to immediately boost Barrick's earnings and double the gold miner's current copper production to around 600 million pounds this year and to more 700 million pounds by the end of 2012.

"As a built and producing asset, we avoid the challenges and risks of constructing new mines. In addition, we expect a sizable resource base to grow significantly, which would extend the life of the mine and support the expansion of this operation," said Regent.

Prices for the industrial metal have risen more than sevenfold in the past eight years as supplies lag the growing needs of China and other developing economies. "Directionally, I would say that most of the long-term copper price assumptions that are being used right now are understating what's going to happen," Regent said, declining to reveal his company's copper price forecast.

Barrick currently owns about 2 percent, or 18.2 million, or Equinox's outstanding shares. Equinox president and CEO Craig Williams said in a release that the Barrick bid "allows our shareholders to realize immediate value and also positions our operations and employees as part of a world class mining company."

"We believe this offer is superior to the public proposal made by Minmetals in terms of certainty and value. Given the immediate value creation opportunity, we are recommending our shareholders tender to the Barrick offer."

The offer is expected to officially begin Tuesday and requires two-thirds of shares be tendered in favor of the deal. The offer will be open for acceptance for a period of not less than 35 days. The company said the offer is not subject to a financing conditions since it has sufficient cash and committed financing to fund the acquisition.

Equinox is listed on the Toronto and Australian stock exchange and has corporate offices in both countries .

Safe Harbor Statement:

Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

[T.S.R:17262] Make No Bones Bombay Is A Sell...Inflation Will Destroy Demand, Pressure Wages

The International Monetary Fund is forecasting strong Asian economic growth of close to 7 percent this year and next.

The IMF said in a report released Thursday that China and India will lead Asian growth.The report warned that there are signs of overheating, with inflation in Asia rising to 4.5 percent in February. Higher oil and food prices are starting to feed into broader inflation and will affect the poor.

Inflation will continue to rise this year before slowing modestly in 2012.

The report warned of other risks, including turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa that threatens to drive up oil prices. It also warned about uncertainties over the effects of Japan's deadly tsunami last month.

Safe Harbor Statement:

Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

[T.S.R:17261] Banks: Sooner or Later Credit Controls Will Come Back In Asia; Real Estate Will Sink

The World Bank says China's economy should grow strongly this year but faces risks from inflation and its surging real estate market.

The World Bank said in a report Thursday this year's economic growth should be 9.3 percent and inflation should be 5 percent.The bank said the country faces risks from inflation and a possible slowdown in its surging real estate and construction industries. It recommended that the government restore normal financial and regulatory conditions following its massive economic stimulus in response to the global crisis.

Beijing has raised interest rates four times since October and is likely to curb credit further to reduce inflation and cool economic growth.

Safe Harbor Statement:

Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

[T.S.R:17260] RIL: Is KG-D6 An Overkill?

4QFY11 results in line. RIL reported PAT of `53.8bn, up 14% yoy. GRMs was slightly lower at US$9.2/bbl (we estimate US$9.5-10/bbl) due to: i) 6-week shutdown of RIL's FCC unit at its DTA refinery; ii) gas imbalance in the refinery due to the shutdown leading to higher LNG imports; iii) lower LPG and pet-coke cracks; iv) impact of linkage of RIL's crude contracts with Brent.

n E&P - Mixed bag. Management has not given any guidance for the D6 gas ramp-up, but has guided for EBITDA of US$2bn from FY15 on account of its US shale gas ventures.

n Change in estimates. We cut out FY12e and FY13e EPS 3% each as we reduce our D6 gas production to 50mcmd and 70mcmd from 60mcmd and 80mcmd respectively.

n Valuation and risks. Despite strong revival in refining margins and strengthening polyester margins, the stock underperformed the market by 16% in the past year due to lack of clarity on D6 gas ramp-up. Though we trim our target price to `1,240/share from `1,250, we maintain Buy as the stock does not factor in positives of the refining & petchem businesses. Clarity on: i) D6 gas ramp up and ii)capex plans for deployment of huge cash generation are key stock triggers. Risks: lower refining & petchem margins and volumes; lower crude & natural gas prices and volumes.

Safe Harbor Statement:

Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

[T.S.R:17259] Automobiles-Sector To Report 30% yoy Growth

Volume growth good despite high base. Overall volume growth rate for our auto coverage universe, in terms of India vehicle sales, was 20.9% yoy and 3.4% qoq. While CV companies had the lowest yoy growth rate, they registered the highest growth rate on a qoqbasis. With good volume growth sustaining, the auto sector is expected to witness healthy revenue growth of 25.5% yoy and 12.6% qoq.

n Tata Motors - Main driver for profit growth. Owing to the low base, Tata Motors is likely to be the best performer in 4QFY11, with adjusted profit growth of 88.2% yoy. We expect Ashok Leyland, Escorts, Hero Honda, Maruti Suzuki and TVS Motors to register lower profitability yoy. We estimate M&M and Bajaj Auto to report good yoy profit growth of 15% and 13.4% respectively, despite higher base.

n Valuation and risks. The auto sector trades at 12.3x FY11e and 10.8x FY12e earnings. While the high volume growth phase has ended, we expect a steady growth rate ahead with stable profit growth. We maintain our Overweight stance on the sector. Risks: Further increase in interest rates, commodity prices; low demand.

Safe Harbor Statement:

Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

[T.S.R:17258] Petronet LNG-Reliable Gas, BUY

Volume growth drives earnings. PLNG reported PAT of `2,063m (up 18% qoq), 20% higher than consensus and our estimates, mainly owing to higher spot purchases and higher other income (interest on tax refund of `110m). Volumes were up 5% qoq vs. our expectation of flattish growth on PLNG importing more spot cargoes to benefit from the low KG D6 gas production. As expected, regascharges rose 5% over CY10, at `32.7/mmbtu.

n Growth in volume and earnings to continue. We expect FY12e volume to be 9.6mtpa (8.5mtpa in FY11), as management plansto import ~15 spot cargoes during FY12 on the back of the recently signed 1.5mtpa short-term contract for FY12-13. We maintain ourearnings estimates and expect 17% earnings CAGR over FY11-16e due to rise in volumes and higher regas charges.

n Valuation and risks. We raise our target price to `153 from `140 as we roll forward our valuation to Mar '12e. We reiterate Buy as we expect LNG demand to remain robust amid a favorable demand-supply scenario. Signing of a long-term contract and expected easing of pipeline capacity constraints are potential stock triggers. Risks: Lower regas charges and volumes.

Safe Harbor Statement:

Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

[T.S.R:17257] [Team Stock Researchers Pvt. Ltd.] 4/28/2011 08:06:00 PM

Nifty EOD Chart 28 APRIL 2011

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Posted By Laloo Laal to Team Stock Researchers Pvt. Ltd. at 4/28/2011 08:06:00 PM

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Wednesday, April 27, 2011

[T.S.R:17255] Reports of banks.

[T.S.R:17254] Stagflation Is A Given-Asianomics Forecasts FY12 Real GDP at 7 per cent

Sharp increase in inflation. Strong jump in manufactured products inflation pushed up headline inflation (based on the wholesale price index) to 8.98% in Mar '11, beating market and our expectations (8.3%). WPI inflation remains above 8% for the 15th consecutive month. Jan '11 WPI inflation was revised to 9.4% from 8.2% earlier.

n Manufactured products driving inflation higher. The index for manufactured products has been sharply rising since Dec '10; itrose 1.4% m-o-m in Mar '11. The annual manufactured products inflation rose to 6.2% from 4.9% in Feb '11. The index of primary articles marginally declined 0.2% m-o-m. The fuel index rose 3.9% m-o-m owing to rises in prices of coking coal (up 33%), non-coking coal (+27%) and aviation turbine fuel (+13%).

n Non-food inflation rising. Non-food manufactured products inflation surged to 7% in Mar '11, the highest level in almost 2.5 years. Non-food primary articles inflation rose to 25.9% in Mar '11, remaining above 20% for seven successive months.

n Inflation assessment and outlook. The source of inflation in India is changing to manufactured products from primary articles. Highraw material, wage and interest costs are leading to the rise in manufactured products inflation; we expect the trend to continue for at least a couple of months. Large revisions of past data are affecting the quality of inflation forecasts. Yet we expect the high base to soften inflation to ~8% in the next month. While, thereafter, the risk remains on the upside in 1HFY12, a good monsoon, limited pass-through of crude prices and fall in global commodity prices may soften inflation in 2HFY12 to ~6%.

n Policy outlook. Despite soft growth figures (IIP, GDP) and decelerating credit growth, the RBI is expected to remain in the tightening mode during 1HFY12 to anchor inflationary expectations in a stubborn inflationary situation. We expect the RBI to raise both the repo and reverse repo rates by 25bps each in its mid-quarterly review of the monetary policy, on 3 May '11.

Safe Harbor Statement:

Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

[T.S.R:17253] GOI-Fisc & Current A/C Out of Shape; Price Controls Might Be The Only Way Fwd

Crude at +US$120/bbl on MENA concerns. For 1-15 April, Brent crude was US$122.3/bbl, up US$7.4/bbl from the previous fortnight, on account of the unrest in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) that could trigger supply disruptions incrude oil.

n Auto-fuel losses zoom. Based on average global gasoil and gasoline prices during 1-15 April, auto-fuel under-recoveries for 16-30 April are likely to be Rs15.7/litre as losses on diesel rose to Rs17.3/litre. We estimate an auto-fuel breakeven crude price at US$76.3/bbl, up US$1.8 from the previous fortnight, due to appreciation of the rupee and slight decline in global diesel cracks.

n Refining margin strong, complex refiners gain. Refining margin for 1-15 April was US$8.4/bbl due to the shutdown of 1.4mbpd refining capacity in Japan . For 4QFY11, it is US$7.4/bbl compared with US$5.5/bbl in 3QFY11, on the continued strength in middle-distillate cracks. We estimate that margin would average US$4.75/bbl in FY12 and US$5.5/bbl in FY13. The Brent-Dubai spread was strong at US$7.6/bbl, up US$1.2/bbl from the previous fortnight, adding to complex refiners' margins.

Safe Harbor Statement:

Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

[T.S.R:17252] FMCG Firms Impose A Consumption Tax; Pass On Input Cost Increase

Notable launches were Saffola Gold Basmati rice by Marico, and Boost Glucose and Glaxose D in the glucose powder category by GSK-CH. HUL introduced Kissan Creamy Spread (cheese spread) in three flavors and re-launched Lifebuoy prickly heat powder. Coca Cola entered the juices market via its brand, Minute Maid.

n Pricing actions. Price hikes continued in Mar '11 – HUL increased prices of its detergents by 5-10%. P&G India hiked prices of Tide Plus by 6%. Colgate hiked prices of Colgate Dental Cream and Colgate Active Salt 3.5% each. Marico hiked the price of Saffola Arise by 33% and Saffola Tasty Blend edible oil by 3%.

n Rising raw material prices. Most raw material prices rose in Mar '11. Prices of most crude-oil derivatives increased, impacting personal-care product companies. Lower wheat prices may have aided food companies. HUL would be the most impacted by the higher prices of LAB and soda ash.

n Stock calls. We maintain Buy on ITC, Nestlé India , Asian Paints, Colgate, Godrej Consumer, Marico, GSK-CH and Emami; and Hold on Dabur. We retain Sell on HUL and Britannia. Among our mid-caps, we maintain Buy on Pidilite Industries, Agro Tech, Zydus Wellness and VST Industries; and Hold on Bajaj Corp and Jyothy Labs.

Safe Harbor Statement:

Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

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Friday, April 29, 2011

[T.S.R:17269] [Team Stock Researchers Pvt. Ltd.] 4/29/2011 08:06:00 PM

Thursday, April 28, 2011

[T.S.R:17268] Modern Dairies: What When The Milk Runs Dry? Are CDR's Disguised NPAs or Plain Bad Debts?

[T.S.R:17267] Crude@130-How Severe Is The Hit To India? Isn't Bombay vastly over-valued?

[T.S.R:17266] BoB, ICICI & LIC Housing Finance

[T.S.R:17264] PERFORMANCE OF 28.04..2011'S TRADING CALL@TEAM STOCKRESEARCHERS @ www.niftyviews.com / http://smscalls.blogspot.com/

[T.S.R:17264] PERFORMANCE OF 27.04..2011'S TRADING CALL@TEAM STOCKRESEARCHERS @ www.niftyviews.com / http://smscalls.blogspot.com/

[T.S.R:17263] Barrick Buys Equinox-More Consolidation Gold Higher Than $1540/oz

[T.S.R:17262] Make No Bones Bombay Is A Sell...Inflation Will Destroy Demand, Pressure Wages

[T.S.R:17261] Banks: Sooner or Later Credit Controls Will Come Back In Asia; Real Estate Will Sink

[T.S.R:17260] RIL: Is KG-D6 An Overkill?

[T.S.R:17259] Automobiles-Sector To Report 30% yoy Growth

[T.S.R:17258] Petronet LNG-Reliable Gas, BUY

[T.S.R:17257] [Team Stock Researchers Pvt. Ltd.] 4/28/2011 08:06:00 PM

[T.S.R:17256] [Team Stock Researchers Pvt. Ltd.] Free Portfolio guidance !

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

[T.S.R:17255] Reports of banks.

[T.S.R:17254] Stagflation Is A Given-Asianomics Forecasts FY12 Real GDP at 7 per cent

[T.S.R:17253] GOI-Fisc & Current A/C Out of Shape; Price Controls Might Be The Only Way Fwd

[T.S.R:17252] FMCG Firms Impose A Consumption Tax; Pass On Input Cost Increase

TSR LONG TERM REPORTS DATABASE

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