[T.S.R:16986] TSR OPTIONS FEBRUARY 2011 PERFORMANCE SHEET

TSR OPTIONS FEBRUARY 2011 PERFORMANCE SHEET

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TSR PREMIUM OPTIONS CALLS PERFORMANCE SHEET

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CALLS FOR FEBRUARY 2011 TSR OPTIONS PLAN FEBRUARY 2011 PROFITS Rs. + 8575/-

PREMIUM CALLS FOR 24 TH FEBRUARY 2011 (PROFITS - 750/-)

• BUY NIFTY 5300 CE AT CMP - 100, SL - 85, TGT LATER ---> EXITED AT 115 = - 750/-

PREMIUM CALLS FOR 23 RD FEBRUARY 2011 (PROFITS + 1350/-)

• BUY NIFTY 5400 CE AT CMP - 73, SL - 60, TGT LATER ---> BOOKED AT 100 = + 1350/-

PREMIUM CALLS FOR 22 ND FEBRUARY 2011 (PROFITS + 750/-)

• BUY NIFTY 5400 CE AT CMP - 83, SL - 65, TGT LATER ---> BOOKED AT 97 = + 750/-

PREMIUM CALLS FOR 21 ST FEBRUARY 2011 (PROFITS + 500/-)

• BUY NIFTY 5400 CE AT CMP - 73, SL - 58, TGT LATER ---> BOOKED AT 83 = + 500/-

PREMIUM CALLS FOR 18 TH FEBRUARY 2011 (PROFITS - 6800/-)

• BUY DLF 240 PE AT CMP - 8, SL - 6, TGT LATER ---> EXITED AT 6 = - 2000/-
• BUY CHAMBEL 75 CE AT CMP - 2.4, SL - 1.2, TGT LATER ---> EXITED AT 1.2 = - 4800/-

PREMIUM CALLS FOR 17 TH FEBRUARY 2011 (PROFITS 0/-)

• --- NO CALLS GENERATED --- ---> = 0/-

PREMIUM CALLS FOR 16 TH FEBRUARY 2011 (PROFITS  +1000/-)

• BUY NIFTY 5400 PE AT CMP - 40, SL - 28, TGT LATER ---> EXITED AT 60= +1000/-

PREMIUM CALLS FOR 15 TH FEBRUARY 2011 (PROFITS - 1000/-)

• BUY RELIANCE FEB 920 CE AT CMP - 24.25, SL - 19, TGT LATER ---> EXITED AT 20.25 = - 1000/-

PREMIUM CALLS FOR 14 TH FEBRUARY 2011 (PROFITS + 750/-)

• BUY NIFTY FEB 5400 CE AT CMP - 75-76, SL - 60, TGT LATER ---> BOOKED AT 90 = 0/-

PREMIUM CALLS FOR 11 TH FEBRUARY 2011 (PROFITS - 2900/-)

• BUY NIFTY FEB 5300 CE AT CMP - 59, SL - 40, TGT LATER ---> EXITED AT 40 = - 1900/-
• BUY JPASSO FEB 80 CE AT CMP - 2.3, SL - 1.8, TGT LATER ---> EXITED AT 1.8 = - 1000/-

PREMIUM CALLS FOR 10 TH FEBRUARY 2011 (PROFITS + 2200/-)

• UY RELIANCE FEB 900 PE AT CMP - 17, SL - 12, TGT LATER ---> BOOKED AT 23 = + 1500/-
• BUY NIFTY FEB 5300 CE AT CMP - 71, SL - 60, TGT LATER ---> EXITED AT 60 = - 550/-
• BUY TCS FEB 1100 PE AT CMP - 34, SL - 24, TGT LATER ---> BOOKED AT 39 = + 1250/-

PREMIUM CALLS FOR 09 TH FEBRUARY 2011 (PROFITS + 250/-)

• BUY NIFTY FEB 5200 PE AT CMP - 62, SL - 45, TGT LATER ---> BOOKED AT 72 = + 500/-
• BUY TATASTEEL FEB 600 PE AT CMP - 12, SL - 9, TGT LATER ---> EXITED AT 10.5 = - 750/-
• BUY ICICIBANK FEB 1000 CE AT CMP - 17, SL - 12, TGT LATER ---> BOOKED AT 19 = + 500/-

PREMIUM CALLS FOR 08 TH FEBRUARY 2011 (PROFITS - 3900/-)

• BUY NIFTY FEB 5400 CE AT CMP - 99, SL - 85, TGT LATER ---> BOOKED AT 106 = + 350/-
• BUY DLF FEB 240 PE AT CMP - 10.5, SL - 8, TGT LATER ---> EXITED AT 8 = - 2500/-
• BUY NIFTY FEB 5400 CE AT CMP - 88, SL - 78, TGT LATER ---> BOOKED AT 78 = - 500/-
• BUY TCS FEB 1150 CE AT CMP - 27, SL - 22, TGT LATER ---> EXITED AT 22 = - 1250/-

PREMIUM CALLS FOR 07 TH FEBRUARY 2011 (PROFITS + 2050/-)

• BUY RENUKA FEB 95 CE AT CMP - - 2.7, SL - - 1.5, TGT LATER ---> BOOKED AT 3.10 = + 1600/-
• BUY NIFTY FEB 5400 CE AT CMP - 99, SL - - 85, TGT LATER ---> BOOKED AT 108 = + 450/-

PREMIUM CALLS FOR 04 TH FEBRUARY 2011 (PROFITS + 750/-)

• BUY NIFTY FEB 5400 CE AT CMP - - 127, SL - - 110, TGT LATER ---> BOOKED AT 137 = + 500/-
• BUY TATAMOT FEB 1150 CE AT CMP - -57, SL - - 50, TGT LATER ---> BOOKED AT 62 = + 1250/-
• BUY ICICIBANK FEB 1050 CE AT CMP - - 27, SL - - 24, TGT LATER ---> EXITED AT 24 = - 1000/-

PREMIUM CALLS FOR 03 RD FEBRUARY 2011 (PROFITS + 10150/-)

• BUY NIFTY FEB 5400 PE AT CMP - - 67, SL - - 60, TGT LATER ---> EXITED AT 60 = - 50/-
• BUY DLF FEB 220 CE AT CMP - - 15-15.20, SL - - 13, TGT LATER ---> BOOKED AT 25 = + 10000/-
• BUY ICICI BANK FEB 1050 CE AT CMP - - 27, SL - - 22, TGT LATER ---> BOOKED AT 29 = + 500/-

PREMIUM CALLS FOR 02ND FEBRUARY 2011 (PROFITS + 2600/-)

• BUY NIFTY FEB 5500 CE AT 92, SL - - 80, TGT LATER ---> BOOKED AT 102 = + 500/-
• BUY DLF FEB 220 CE AT 15-15.20, SL - - 13, TGT LATER ---> BOOKED AT 17.70 = + 2500/-
• BUY NIFTY FEB 5400 PE AT CMP - - 80, SL - - 72, TGT LATER ---> EXITED AT 72 = - 400/-

PREMIUM CALLS FOR 01 ST FEBRUARY 2011 (PROFITS - 2425/-)

• BUY NIFTY FEB 5500 CE AT CMP - - 115, SL - - 102, TGT LATER ---> EXITED AT 102 = - 1300/-
• BUY SBI FEB 2650 CE AT CMP - - 81, SL - - 72, TGT LATER ---> EXITED AT 72 = - 1125/-

PREMIUM CALLS FOR 31 ST JANUARY 2011 (PROFITS + 2700/-)

• BUY DLF FEB 220 CE AT CMP - 13.10, SL - 10, TGT LATER ---> BOOKED AT 14.30 = + 1200/-
• BUY SBI FEB 2650 CE AT CMP - 84, SL - 70, TGT LATER ---> BOOKED AT 96 = + 1500/-

PREMIUM CALLS FOR 28 TH JANUARY 2011 (PROFITS + 1300/-)

• BUY TATAMOT FEB 1150 CE AT CMP - - 38, SL - - 34, TGT LATER ---> EXITED AT 34 = - 1000/-
• BUY TATAMOT FEB 1100 PE AT CMP - - 30.5, SL - - 23, TGT LATER ---> BOOKED AT 36 = + 1500/-
• BUY NIFTY 5500 PE AT CMP - - 116, SL - - 100, TGT LATER ---> BOOKED AT 132 = + 800/-

PREMIUM CALLS FOR 27 TH JANRUARY 2011 (PROFITS 0/-)

• NO CALLS GENERATED ---> EXITED AT 115 = 0/-

Monday, January 24, 2011

CALLS FOR JANUARY 2011 TSR OPTIONS PLAN JANUARY 2011 PROFITS Rs. 15,925/-

PREMIUM CALLS FOR 24 TH JANUARY 2011 (PROFITS + 800/-)

• BUY SBIN JAN 2700 CE AT CMP - 22.5-23, SL - 18, TGT LATER ---> BOOKED AT 28.5 = + 750/-
• BUY TATAMOTOR JAN 1200 CE AT CMP - 10.5, SL - 6, TGT LATER ---> BOOKED AT 13.5 = + 750/-
• BUY ICICI JAN 1050 PE AT CMP - 9, SL - 7, TGT LATER ---> EXITED AT 7 = - 700/-

PREMIUM CALLS FOR 21 ST JANUARY 2011 (PROFITS - 900/-)

• BUY NIFTY JAN 5700 CE AT CMP - 54, SL - 45, TGT LATER ---> EXITED AT 45 = - 900/-

PREMIUM CALLS FOR 04 TH JANUARY 2011 (PROFITS 5600/-)

• BUY ICICIBANK JAN 1000 CE AT CMP - 31, SL - 27, TGT LATER ---> BOOKED AT 48 = + 4250/-
• BUY DLF JAN 260 CE AT CMP - 3.9, SL - 3, TGT LATER ---> BOOKED AT 4.8 = + 900/-
• BUY NIFTY JAN 5600 CE AT CMP - 91, SL - 80, TGT LATER ---> BOOKED AT 100 = + 450/-

PREMIUM CALLS FOR 19 TH JANUARY 2011 (PROFITS + 175/-)

• BUY ICICIBANK JAN 1050 CE AT CMP - 13.3, SL - 11, TGT LATER ---> BOOKED AT 16 = + 675/-
• BUY NIFTY JAN 5700 CE AT CMP - 60, SL - 50, TGT LATER ---> EXITED AT 50 = - 500/-

PREMIUM CALLS FOR 18 TH JANUARY 2011 (PROFITS + 1850/-)

• BTST NIFTY JAN 5700 CE AT CMP - 60, SL - ..., TGT LATER ---> BOOKED AT 82 = + 1100/-
• 
  BUY TCS JAN 1150 PE AT CMP - 15.3, SL - 11.5, TGT LATER ---> BOOKED AT 18.3 = + 750/-

PREMIUM CALLS FOR 17 TH JANUARY 2011 (PROFITS + 1400/-)

• BUY NIFTY JAN 5700 CE AT CMP - 79, SL - 65, TGT LATER ---> EXITED AT 74 = - 200/-
• BUY RCOM JAN 130 PE AT CMP - 3.20, SL - 2, TGT LATER ---> BOOKED AT 4 = + 1600/-

PREMIUM CALLS FOR 13 TH JANUARY 2011 (PROFITS + 150/-)

• BUY NIFTY JAN 5800 PE AT CMP - 115, SL - 96, TGT LATER ---> BOOKED 1 LOT AT 123 & 2ND AT 109 = 0/-
• BUY TATASTEEL JAN 660 CE AT CMP - 13.8, SL - 11, TGT LATER ---> EXITED AT 11 = - 1400/-
• BUY ICICI JAN 1000 PE AT CMP -14.5, SL - 10, TGT LATER ---> BOOKED AT 18.5 = + 1000/-
• BUY NIFTY JAN 5800 CE AT CMP - 77, SL - 70, TGT LATER ---> BOOKED AT 88 = + 550/-

PREMIUM CALLS FOR 12 TH JANUARY 2011 (PROFITS + 8300/-)

• BUY NIFTY JAN 5700 PE AT CMP - 63, SL - 51, TGT LATER ---> BOOKED AT 83 = + 1000/-
• BUY RENUKA JAN 90 CE AT CMP -2.85, SL - 2.3, TGT LATER ---> BOOKED AT 3.80 = + 3800/-
• BUY NIFTY JAN 5800 CE AT CMP - 106, SL - 95, TGT LATER ---> BOOKED AT 136 = + 1500/-
• BUY HINDALCO JAN 230 CE AT CMP - 11.20, SL - 9, TGT LATER ---> BOOKED AT 13.20 = + 4000/-

PREMIUM CALLS FOR 11 TH JANUARY 2011 (PROFITS - 250/-)

• BUY NIFTY JAN 5800 CE AT CMP - 107, SL - 95, TGT LATER ---> EXITED AT 102 = - 250/-

PREMIUM CALLS FOR 10 TH JANUARY 2011 ----)

• NO CALLS GENERATED

PREMIUM CALLS FOR 07 TH JANUARY 2011 (PROFITS - 3500/-)

• BUY RELIANCE JAN 1100 CE AT CMP - 21, SL - 16, TGT LATER ---> EXITED AT 16 = = - 1250/-
• BUY TATASTEEL JAN 700 CE AT CMP - 19, SL - 14, TGT LATER ---> EXITED AT 14.5 = - 2250/-

PREMIUM CALLS FOR 06 TH JANUARY 2011 (PROFITS - 3450/-)

• BUY NIFTY 6100CE AT CMP - 89, SL - 80, TGT LATER ---> EXITED AT 80 = - 450/-
• BUY CIPLA JAN 380 CA AT CMP - 12, SL - 9, TGT LATER ---> EXITED AT 9 = - 3000/-

PREMIUM CALLS FOR 05 TH JANUARY 2011 (PROFITS 0/-)

• NO CALLS GENERATED

PREMIUM CALLS FOR 04 TH JANUARY 2011 (PROFITS - 1450/-)

• BUY HCC JAN 50 CE AT CMP - 2.9, SL - 2.2, TGT - 4 ---> EXITED AT 2.2 = - 2800/-
• BUY TATASTEEL JAN 700 CE AT CMP - 23.7, SL - 21, TGT LATER ---> BOOKED AT 25.5 = + 900/-
• BUY NIFTY JAN 6100 PE AT CMP - 61, SL - 50, TGT LATER ---> BOOKED AT 70 = + 450/-

PREMIUM CALLS FOR 03 RD JANUARY 2010 (PROFITS + 2200/-)

• BUY RCOM JAN 150 CE AT 6.5, SL AT 5.8, TGT LATER ---> BOOKED AT 7.25 = + 2200/-

PREMIUM CALLS FOR 31 ST DECEMBER 2010 (PROFITS + 3000/-)

• BUY IBREAL JAN 140 CE AT CMP - 4.9-5, SL - 4, TGT LATER ---> BOOKED AT 6.40 = + 3000/-

• TOTAL PROFIT : 8,575/-
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[T.S.R:16985] BUDGET 2011-12

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[T.S.R:16984] Peninsula Land-Sell

Peninsula Land-Continued Land Acquisitions Are Destroying a viable business model

Peninsula Land has acquired land in past 6-9 months both in and outside 

Mumbai . It acquired two land parcels in South Mumbai (Napensea 

Road: for Rs 1.1bn, Carmichael Rd: for Rs 1.4bn) and one each at 

Lonavala (Rs 0.3bn), Alibagh and Hyderabad. The delay in launch 

of Goa and Nashik Projects may delay the launch of the above 

projects which will affect cash flows thereby increasing debt levels.

Key risks

Selling PBP (phase-II) completely without delays in the price range 

of Rs. 15-16K psf or leasing the same at a rate of Rs140+ psf. 

An unviable model?

Sell Peninsula Land on account of the following: (i) We see competition for PENL in selling/leasing the phase-II of Peninsula Business Park (0.6msf) as there is a stiff competition from Alok infra(Phase I, Sold by PENL to Alok Infra)leading to delay in cash inflow (ii) Delays seen in cash flow as it has been more than a year since the company has not launched any projects (iii) PENL has acquired land for residential projects (outright purchase /JV/JDA), both in and out side Mumbai. 

These acquisitions have increased the debt levels and could be a concern as near term cash flow visibility seems bleak.

Peninsula Business Park (PBP) – a key revenue contributor PBP's phase-I was sold to Alok Infra and it has recognised approx Rs.10 bn on % completion method. As per management, PENL has started marketing the second tower of PBP for outright sale/lease. However, we believe Lower Parel area is likely to see over supply and infrastructure bottlenecks. 

On this basis we feel that PENL may face difficulty in leasing/selling PBP at its predetermined price. Moreover it is facing competition from Alok Infra Phase –I PBP which was sold by PENL to Alok Infra. 

New launches yet to be announced As per management, PENL was supposed to launch Goa (1msf) and Nashik (2.2msf) projects, but we still haven't seen any official launches though construction work has commenced. The delay in launches may cloud near term cash flow visibility.

Safe Harbor Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.

 

Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

 

 

 

 

 

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[T.S.R:16983] Britannia Industries-HDFC MF Remains A Consistent Seller On The Counter; Changing fortunes for FMCG Players?

16/02/11	HDFC Long Term Equity Fund	S	7,90,531
05/01/11	HDFC Capital Builder Fund	S	89,113
05/01/11	HDFC Long Term Advantage Fund	S	1,60,000
29/12/10	HDFC Prudence Fund	S	6,89,397
22/12/10	HDFC Mid-Cap Opportunities Fund	S	99,461

 

Safe Harbor Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.

 

Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

 

 

 

 

 

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[T.S.R:16982] FMCG-On Very Shaky Legs (JPM)

More price hikes.

Stiff input cost environment led to consumer companies continuing to increase prices in the past month to mitigate margin pressures. Key hikes include: 1) P&G discontinued the promotional – 10% extra offer – on its key detergent brand Tide Plus, 2) Marico took more price hikes in Jan'11 amounting to 8-20% across various SKUs of Parachute Coconut Oil. Marico cumulatively hiked prices across Parachute SKUs by 20-40% since Sep'10, 3) HUL raised prices for some of the SKUs for its soap brands – Lux and Liril by 3-10% and increased price for Dove shampoo by 5%, 4) Colgate undertook a 17% price hike for Cibaca toothpaste, and 5) Dabur continued with more price increases across its toothpastes, hair oils and Chyawanprash portfolio.

ITC took further price hikes ahead of the budget and increased price for its leading brand Gold Flake by 8% and Wills Flake by 12%. It had earlier hiked prices for its low price brand Bristol by 12%.  

New product launches. 1) HUL has introduced a new variant Bru Lite to expand its coffee portfolio, 2) Dabur has forayed into professional facial market with launch of OxyLife Professional Facial Kit.  

Global Research. L'Oreal reported 32% LTL sales growth in India in 2010 supported by new product introductions and increased distribution reach. This comes over strong 31.5% LTL sales growth witnessed in 2009 by the company.

Key commodity trends. Palm oil (+3% m/m), coconut oil (+12% m/m) and soybean prices were firm over the past month. Sugar (-1% m/m) and wheat (-3% m/m) prices were soft. LAB prices were up 4% m/m. Cotton prices rose sharply (+24% m/m).
 

Safe Harbor Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.

 

Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

 

 

 

 

 

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[T.S.R:16981] India: Q3FY11 Earnings Final Cut-Growth Is Slowing (Morgan Stanley)

The slowdown in earnings remains a matter of concern for market participants.

-Q3FY11 Results show 25 per cent of the companies reporting a yoy decline in earnings.

-Earnings growth was the slowest in 5 quarters.

-Excluding Ongc and Tata Motors Sensex earnings are up a mere 10.5 per cent yoy.

-Telecoms and Utilities were the biggest laggards with a substantial drop in YOY earnings.

-Financials produced the biggest positive surprises while consumer staples and healthcare produced the most negative surprises.

-FY11 earnings growth revisions were negative for 6 out of 10 sectors over the past month with Materials and Helathcare seeing the highest negative earnings revisions.

-The recent events in the country coupled with higher inflation and global factors is putting pressure on growth and creating the risk of downward earnings revisions. For now we think that the downgrades will be moderate. However, lead indicators point to slower broad market earnings growth in the coming quarters.
 

Safe Harbor Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.

 

Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

 

 

 

 

 

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[T.S.R:16980] Goldman Sachs: Expect Oil Rationing In Poor Nations Soon

GS: Oil Could Get Rationed Soon

Three weeks ago when we first commented on the developments taking place in the Middle East and North Africa we highlighted the risk of contagion (see

Contagion risk moves markets, but physical risks remain low, published January 31, 2011). We noted that countries with low income levels, high inflation and unemployment in politically less stable regions would be more susceptible to contagion.  

By the same token, we argued that the more affluent and politically stable GCC economies in the Gulf would be more immune.  

The contagion risk has to a large extent materialized. Social unrest has indeed spread from Tunisia and Egypt over to other parts of the region. Jordan, Yemen and more recently Libya have been impacted and the situations in Yemen and Libya appear to be particularly unstable. However, there are a number of economies with similar traits that could be susceptible to further contagion, namely Algeria, Syria and in the extreme maybe even Iran. 

In contrast, the more prosperous Gulf region has been relatively stable, with no sign of popular discontent in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Oman and Kuwait. There have been mass demonstrations in Bahrain. But those were mainly sectarian in nature (led by the Shia majority) and less socio-economic. And the situation in Bahrain looks more stable.  

Events in Libya leave only a small buffer against further contagion 

This means that there may still be some risk of further supply disruptions for which the market now has a much smaller buffer to protect itself from. We estimate that OPEC currently holds 2.5-3.0 million b/d of "effective" spare production capacity. While this can accommodate an extended loss of all of Libyan exports, it could not accommodate another production disruption should the contagion spread, and it is this risk that we believe has and will continue to drive prices in the near-term. 

While these events only modestly pull forward the return to a structural bull market that we saw occurring in 2H2011 and 2012, the contagion risk premium will likely dominate the fundamental picture in the near-term, creating significant upside risks to our forecasts.  

Further, given the high quality nature of the light-sweet crude oil currently being shut in, this will also likely widen light-heavy spreads, particularly should Saudi Arabia have to replace these lost barrels with heavy oil. While the timing of how long these disruptions will last is entirely uncertain at this point, the evacuation of the crews means even if normalcy is restored today, it will take several weeks to restore the shut-in production. Historically, these types of disruptions last for several months with production rarely ever restored to pre-crisis levels as field damage is typically incurred and expertise is lost. With Libya, however, the fields are of the highest quality and very easy to operate, which suggests once the current civil unrest settles down, production can be restored quickly with little or no long-term losses.

 

Safe Harbor Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.

 

Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

 

 

 

 

 

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[T.S.R:16979] Glen Neely: A New Bull Market In Oil Has Begun, A Collapse Of The Dow Is On The Way

The most likely justification for the future market decline will be severe financial problems for federal, state and local governments. The result could be local and national transportation disruptions, public service problems and government employee layoffs around the country. Other circumstances that might justify a 30+ per cent decline in the stock market could be a substantial increase in the cost of energy or a drastic increase in the value of the U.S. dollar (i.e. deflation).

Feb 22, 2011 – Today, the U.S. stock market experienced a major selloff, falling more than 2%. According to Glenn Neely, Wave theory expert and founder of NEoWave Institute, this confirms the end of the rally off November 30, 2010's low and probably the end of the bull market that began at 2009's low.

Recently, Mr. Neely warned subscribers to the NEoWave Trading and Forecasting services that a "major event" was on the horizon. In preparation, Mr. Neely instructed trading customers to go Short, right at last Friday's high and clsoe, which is currently top-tick of the month!

Applying NEoWave's advanced market confirmation techniques, Mr. Neely explains that today's collapse confirms the end of an old pattern and the start of a new one. This new pattern suggests a 1- to 2-year bear market has begun and will likely result in a 30+% drop in market valuation.

While economic conditions have improved greatly since 2009's low, NEoWave warns a new downturn (lasting 1- to 2-years) is beginning. As is always the case, markets anticipate future economic reality. While news has been improving, wave structure warns the U.S. stock market has turned a corner, setting the stage for an "echo" of the 2008/2009 financial crisis – but this time with a new twist. Instead of financial institutions and real estate markets being devastated, Mr. Neely suspects the most likely justification for this future market decline will be severe financial problems for federal, state and local governments. The result could be local and national transportation disruptions, public service problems and government employee layoffs around the country. Other circumstances that might justify a 30+% decline in the stock market could be a substantial increase in the cost of energy or a drastic increase in the value of the U.S. dollar (i.e. deflation).

About Glenn Neely and NEoWave Institute

Glenn Neely, internationally regarded as the premier Elliott Wave analyst, founded the Elliott Wave Institute in 1983. In 1990, Neely published his advanced Wave analysis process in his now-classic book, Mastering Elliott Wave. In 2000, Neely changed the name of his research and advisory firm to NEoWave Institute to differentiate his scientific Wave analysis technology from orthodox, subjective Elliott Wave analysis, which is frequently nebulous, inaccurate, and constantly fluid.  

What is Elliott Wave? In the early 1930s, Ralph Nelson Elliott presented his theory of market behavior, which quantifies each stage of an economic cycle into specific patterns of mass psychology. Glenn Neely has devoted more than 25 years to mastering and advancing the concepts of Wave theory. Neely refined Elliott Wave theory to make it objective, practical, and consistently accurate, producing his now-famous NEoWave technology. This precise, step-by-step assessment of market structure leads to low-risk, high-profit investing and trading. Orthodox Elliott Wave, devoid of such technology and rules, typically leaves the analyst with ambiguous interpretations, seriously flawed results, and dual-directional forecasts.

Today, decades after R.N. Elliott penned his original theory, countless investors and traders trust Neely's revolutionary, step-by-step NEoWave approach to market analysis. Devotees of NEoWave Institute and Glenn Neely are reaping the rewards of low-risk, high-profit investing. Learn more about Glenn Neely and NEoWave Institute at http://www.NEoWave.com.

Learn about NEoWave's Forecasting Service.

Learn about NEoWave's Trading Service.

 

Safe Harbor Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.

 

Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

 

 

 

 

 

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[T.S.R:16976] PERFORMANCE OF 25.02.2011'S TRADING CALL@TEAM STOCKRESEARCHERS @ www.niftyviews.com / http://smscalls.blogspot.com/

PERFORMANCE OF 25.02.2011'S TRADING CALL@TEAM STOCKRESEARCHERS @
www.niftyviews.com / http://smscalls.blogspot.com/

INTRADAY FUTURES  -4000rs PROFIT PER 1 Lot of Trading.Charges 7000 for 2 months.
TSR NIFTY (+30) POINTS IN JUST 1 LOT.Charges 4000 for 2 months
INTRADAY OPTIONS +3000 RS!.Charges 4500 for 2 months.

Here are the trading calls given by Team Stock researchers to its premium clients today.Its intra/futs/nifty futs /options service.Calls are sent by both sms and yahoo messenger.All are live calls.We dont give premarket calls.
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CASH CALLS
  1 calls given ,1 tgt done, 0 sl taken , 0 exited at cost
SELL MPHASIS 507 SL 515 TGT 500-495
BOOKED AT 483!

NIFTY CALLS:

SELL NIFTY FUT 5335 & 5355 SL 5365  TGT 5315-5300
BOOKED AT 5305
profit : +30 POINTS

OPTIONS CALLS:

BUY NIFTY 5400CE@125SL 115TGT LATER
BOOKED AT 135
PROFIT= 500/1LOT

BUY TATAMOT 1150CE@25 SL 21 TGT LATER

BOOKED AT 35 AS BTST

PROFIT=2500RS/1LOT

TOTAL PROFIT = +3000 RS TRADING OF 1 LOT!


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[T.S.R:16975] Deutsche Bank-India's Infrastructure Caught Between Price And Permits

Following the emergence of worries over domestic coal availability coupled with recent tightening of global coal markets, we are beginning to get concerned about the resultant impact on Indian utilities and cement producers. For Indian power utilities, peak utilisation levels could drop 2,000bps by FY14E supporting a demand growth <6%. For cement players already grappling with excess supply, the tightness in coal markets will likely exacerbate margin pressure. 

Concerns on new power capacity addition – read spot rates to be strong We estimate that Indian coal availability will now rise at a CAGR of only 4.2% over FY10-14E, which is insufficient to meet the power capacity growth of 10.4%.

Operating rates (PLF) would hence compress by 2000bps over FY11-14E, assuming other sources of capacity do not suffer from lack of fuel. Risk of running plants at a PLF of less than 55% may result in the deferral of capacity-addition in early stages of development. Consequently, we estimate that medium-term spot rates will stay at INR4/unit vs. the street's expectation of a sharp decline.

Production discipline may be one of few options for cement players Weak utilization and rising costs may force cement companies to discipline

production or risk a sharp compression in margins. Our estimates factor in some benefits from manufacturers' production discipline for six to seven months in FY12.

Safe Harbor Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.

 

Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

 

 

 

 

 

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[T.S.R:16974] Credit Suisse Forecasts IVRCL Infra Margins To Shrink By Half To A Mere 4 Per Cent

Margins for IVRCL are dependant on: 1) mix of order book based on business segments – complex jobs earn better margins, 2) commodity costs based on the mix of order book on fixed price vs cost pass-through contracts, 3) working capital cycle and 4) gearing.

Operating margins for IVRCL declined during FY04-05 on account of increase in steel prices and high share of low margin transportation segment orders. Margins improved during FY06-08 as IVRCL increased the share of high margin irrigation and power transmission orders. Margins during FY09 fell sharply led by 15% increase in working capital cycle, mainly on account of the credit crunch led by global economic downturn, impacting its ability to execute projects. However, operating margins have bounced back to about 9.4% in FY10.

The core construction business of IVRCL is extremely competitive, which results in IVRCL earning margins similar to that of its peers.

We believe that margins have peaked for IVRCL given the competitive nature of the business. We expect operating margin for the company to be in the narrow range of 9.5-10% and expect its net profit margin to be around 4%.

 

Safe Harbor Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.

 

Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

 

 

 

 

 

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[T.S.R:16973] Praj Industries, Balrampur, Renuka, BajajHind-Collapse Of The Ethanol Based Earnings Model

Former President Bill Clinton is warning farmers not to use so much corn for ethanol fuel that it raises food prices and causes riots in other countries.

Clinton told farmers and Agriculture Department employees that he believes producing biofuels such as corn-based ethanol is important for reducing U.S. dependence on foreign oil. But he says farmers also should look beyond domestic production and consider the needs of developing countries.

Clinton spoke Thursday at the department's annual Agricultural Outlook Forum. His foundation has worked to develop agribusiness in African countries such as Malawi and Rwanda.

 

Safe Harbor Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.

 

Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

 

 

 

 

 

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[T.S.R:16976] Morning guide www.niftyviews.com

Morning guide www.niftyviews.com
: Yesterday morning most of us believed that expiry will not be below 5400, but Mkts has something else to show us and that is why Mkt is the king. Now Crude at $ 97/bbl may give some relief. Any closing below 5175 will invite fresh selling. FII sell Rs 2702.22 Cr and DII buy Rs 1029.92 Cr

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[T.S.R:16971] India: How Can A Market Fetch A PE of 15, When Earnings Growth Is A Mere 7.5% ? (Citi)

Is India Growing Or Is It The Rest Of The World?

Earnings growth back to the starting line? — Do Q3 aggregates leave India where it started the earnings season? We think not. This is because domestic businesses seem to be driving top-line growth, while bottom line momentum is fuelled by commodity biased/ cyclical foreign subsidiaries. This 

could well challenge India's domestic growth/valuation premium. 

India's headline 3Q11 profit growth was robust but with almost 80% of this growth being generated by its foreign subsidiaries (swinging from losses to large profits), it is actually a fairly disappointing show. 'Domestic only' earnings growth at 7.5% is weak, short of expectations, and in line with trends observed midway through the results season.

The negative bias in the quarter is apparent in the upside/downside surprise ratio (37/53, with 34 in line); Citi's own earnings upgrade/downgrade ratio at 23/19. Surprisingly, the Street continues to hang onto extremely high earnings estimates for FY11 inspite of a poor show for the first three quarters of FY11.

It's commodities, banks and swings — Commodities and banks make up almost 80% of earnings growth – commodities with help from abroad and banks due to more fundamental reasons. The telecom and energy sectors are the laggards, with median earnings growth for companies at around 20%. The quarters' results do also stand out in the level of earnings concentration (sectors/stocks) and volatility, suggesting less predictability up ahead.

Sales and operating margins relatively balanced — While overall sales and margins have been boosted by the foreign business turnarounds, domestic margins have largely held, with sales too growing as per expectations. 

This suggests pressures are below EBIDTA levels, which could exacerbate given rising rates.

Safe Harbor Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.

 

Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

 

 

 

 

 

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[T.S.R:16971] USD Devaluation-India's IT, Pharma, Gems & Jewellery and Apparel Exports Will Perish

Hushed voices from the Banking circles speak of a Indian Rupee to USD ratio at 40 by mid-summers. This carefully orchestrated move on the part of the US Fed is aimed at curbing imports using the age old weapon of currency debasement. As the US Dollar plunges all commodities will see a vertical rise, making everything exported from Asia to the US unviable in price. Currency appreciation could move more US easy money into Asian Debt, while a hike in commodity price will all but destroy local economies. As it is, India's largest exports to the West comprising IT services are based on three arbitrages-currency, labour and tax breaks. If all three collapse as seems possible, the next two sectors to be severely mauled by the FIIs would be Technology and Pharma...so brace yourselves.

The dollar hit a record low against the Swiss franc, tumbled against the Japanese yen and gave ground against the euro on Thursday as unrest in the Middle East and North Africa sent oil prices soaring above $100 a barrel.

Analysts said the dollar was being hurt by perceptions that the U.S. central bank will trail other countries in boosting interest rates to curb inflation. In morning trading in New York, the dollar fell as low as 0.9238 Swiss franc, its lowest value ever against the Swiss currency, from 0.9336 late Wednesday. The dollar dropped to 81.74 Japanese yen from 82.53 yen, not far off its post-World War II era low of 79.75 yen, struck in 1995.

Meanwhile, the euro rose to $1.3793 from $1.3744 late Wednesday.

Investors typically consider the U.S. currency along with the Swiss franc and the yen as a safe bet. The U.S. economy is the world's largest and allows access to an enormous market for U.S. Treasury securities.

But the tension in the Middle East and particularly Libya has weighed on the dollar. Analysts say that's because investors think the Federal Reserve will be one of the last major central banks to lift interest rates, and higher rates help support a currency.

Overseas, the unrest in the Middle East has accelerated a recent rise in commodity prices, fueling expectations that foreign central banks will lift rates sooner than expected. Higher interest rates are used to counter inflation.

In Libya on Thursday, military forces loyal to the country's ruler, Moammar Gadhafi, attacked rebelling Libyans in cities close to the capital, Tripoli. The chaos has prompted oil companies to pull out their employees and suspend production in Libya, which contains Africa's biggest oil reserves. Libya had been producing about 1.6 million barrels of crude a day, but Italian oil company Eni has said that the violence in Libya has subtracted 1.2 million barrels of oil from global markets.

Crude prices have jumped about 20 percent in just a week, peaking above $103 a barrel on Thursday. In other trading Thursday, the British pound dipped to $1.6195 from $1.6200. The dollar fell to 98.21 Canadian cents from 99.03 Canadian cents .

Safe Harbor Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.

 

Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

 

 

 

 

 

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