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Wednesday, June 15, 2011

[T.S.R:17495] India Cement-Bleak Demand Outlook


India Cement continues to report numbers below street estimates, mainly on account of lower-than-expected volumes. Subdued demand, soaring costs and higher interest (re-financing of FCCB via rupee loan) will impact profitability in FY12.
 
Volume declines 14% yoy (up 25% qoq) to 2.55m tons; the drop was offset by the rise in realization (up 22% yoy; 4% qoq) to ~`3,800/ton. India Cements booked revenue of `175m from IPL, `74m from Shipping and `35m from Windmill in 4QFY11.
 
Costs kept under check. EBITDA/ton improved ~`140 qoq on the back of improvement in realization. Savings on power and fuel costs of ~`100/ton was offset by increase in other costs. Higher proportion of imported coal led to the savings. The company has redeemed its FCCB of `5bn by availing fresh rupee loan at 10% interest, which would add to the interest burden in FY12. 
 
Expansion and outlook. India Cements 50MW plant (in Tamil Nadu) and 20MW plant (Rajasthan) would commission by Sep '11. Order of 50MW plant in Andhra Pradesh has been placed and will be commissioned by Dec '12. Management expects cement prices to be firm in 1QFY12 and demand to remain sluggish in 1HFY12.
 
 
Safe Harbor Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
 
Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
 
 
 

 
 

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