[T.S.R:17275] Jeremy Grantham: Time To Wake Up

 

Jeremy Grantham

Days of Abundant Resources And Falling Prices Are Over Forever

 

The world is using up its natural resources at an alarming rate, and this has caused a permanent shift in their value.

We all need to adjust our behavior to this new environment. It would help if we did it quickly.

 

Summary

 

Until about 1800, our species had no safety margin and lived, like other animals, up to the limit of the food supply,

ebbing and fl owing in population.

 

From about 1800 on the use of hydrocarbons allowed for an explosion in energy use, in food supply, and, through

the creation of surpluses, a dramatic increase in wealth and scientifi c progress.

 

Since 1800, the population has surged from 800 million to 7 billion, on its way to an estimated 8 billion, at

minimum.

 

The rise in population, the ten-fold increase in wealth in developed countries, and the current explosive growth in

developing countries have eaten rapidly into our

fi nite resources of hydrocarbons and metals, fertilizer, available

land, and water.

 

Now, despite a massive increase in fertilizer use, the growth in crop yields per acre has declined from 3.5% in

the 1960s to 1.2% today. There is little productive new land to bring on and, as people get richer, they eat more

grain-intensive meat. Because the population continues to grow at over 1%, there is little safety margin.

 

The problems of compounding growth in the face of fi nite resources are not easily understood by optimistic,

short-term-oriented, and relatively innumerate humans (especially the political variety).

 

The fact is that no compound growth is sustainable. If we maintain our desperate focus on growth, we will run

out of everything and crash. We must substitute qualitative growth for quantitative growth.

 

But Mrs. Market is helping, and right now she is sending us the Mother of all price signals. The prices of all

important commodities except oil declined for 100 years until 2002, by an average of 70%. From 2002 until now,

this entire decline was erased by a bigger price surge than occurred during World War II.

 

Statistically, most commodities are now so far away from their former downward trend that it makes it very

probable that the old trend has changed – that there is in fact a Paradigm Shift – perhaps the most important

economic event since the Industrial Revolution.

 

Climate change is associated with weather instability, but the last year was exceptionally bad. Near term it will

surely get less bad.

 

Excellent long-term investment opportunities in resources and resource effi ciency are compromised by the high

chance of an improvement in weather next year and by the possibility that China may stumble.

 

From now on, price pressure and shortages of resources will be a permanent feature of our lives. This will

increasingly slow down the growth rate of the developed and developing world and put a severe burden on poor

countries.

 

We all need to develop serious resource plans, particularly energy policies. There is little time to waste.

 

 

Safe Harbor Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.

 

Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

 

 

 

 

 

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