In addition, the trading action in the dollar has been a little unusual in recent weeks. You see, in times of market uncertainty, the dollar is usually a safe haven. As equity markets go down, investors typically move into the dollar in a "flight to safety".
But not recently…
The unrest in Libya, along with the 3.5% pullback in the S&P 500 last week, has done nothing for the dollar. The lack of interest in the world's reserve currency is worrisome.
The dollar must hold the green trendline or risk seeing a significant drop in the near future. If the dollar breaks lower, it will add more fuel to the commodities fire. Oil, gold, and silver will all likely see more strength due to their inverse relationship with the dollar. You see, when the dollar falls, these precious commodities usually rise.
Of course, upward pressure on oil prices is bad news for consumers. Rising oil prices mean rising prices at the pump. In fact, some estimate every $0.01 rise in gas prices takes $600 million out of US consumers' disposable income. Money otherwise spent on goods to fuel the economy is instead spent filling up gas tanks.
The bottom line is this…
If the US Dollar breaks lower and political unrest continues overseas, we could see higher prices in a number of important commodities… including oil. Obviously, it's not what the US economy needs right now.
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