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Action is at bottom a swinging and flailing of the arms to regain one's balance and keep afloat. (Eric Hoffer)
Unbalanced recovery may lead to next crisis: Strauss-Kahn
The current global economic recovery may sow the seeds of the next crisis due to its unbalanced nature, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said. Delivering a speech at the Monetary Authority of Singapore, the IMF Chief pointed out that growth in economies with large external deficits, like the US, is still being driven by domestic demand. And growth in economies with large external surpluses, like China and Germany, is still being powered by exports. According to Strauss-Kahn, the advanced economies should promote growth and job creation, restore fiscal sustainability and should have supportive monetary policy. Likewise, macroeconomic polices should be tightened in emerging economies where output gap is closed. The IMF Chief said that the emerging economies with large surpluses such as China need to diversify the drivers of growth. Pointing out that the nations should address high unemployment and rising income and wealth inequalities to support the recovery, he said that the way emerging economies, especially in Asia, weathered the crisis is "impressive", but there are risks of overheating, and even a hard landing.
Global factory growth accelerating: JP Morgan / Markit
Factories around the world picked up speed in Jan'11 and prices rose to their highest level in two-and-a-half years, a fresh survey suggested. The JP Morgan/Markit global manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) jumped to a nine-month high of 57.2 in Jan'11, as against 55.6 in Dec'10. The acceleration in growth led to a survey record pace of job creation in Jan'11, with employment gains in the US the fastest in nearly four decades. However, the input price index surged to 73.6 in Jan'11, as against 69.4 in Dec'10, with the rate of increase the strongest since Jul'08 in the US and at record highs in the Eurozone and the UK.
India's mfg PMI rises slightly, services PMI picks up pace in Jan
India's manufacturing sector activity continued to expand in Jan'11. The seasonally adjusted HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 56.8 in Jan'11, as against 56.7 in Dec'10. The latest reading indicated a marked expansion of the Indian manufacturing sector and at a pace that was stronger than the long-run series average. Incoming new orders grew substantially in Jan'11. The increase in overall business supported a substantial rise in output. Despite substantial growth of both new business and output, employment in the manufacturing sector was down slightly in Jan'11. Meanwhile, India's service sector growth gained traction in Jan'11 from the previous month, as new business orders increased in anticipation of continued momentum in the Indian economy, according to a private survey. The HSBC-Markit Business Activity Index rose to 58.1 in Jan'11, after falling to 57.7 in Dec'10. With this, the key index of the service sector in India has been above the 50 threshold for 21 consecutive months. However, the input price index hit a 30-month high of 61.99 in Jan'11 and prices charged were at a nine-month high, underscoring the threat that higher raw material prices are rapidly filtering into the broader economy, fueling inflationary pressures.
India's fiscal deficit declines 44.75% YoY in Apr-Dec'10 period
The Centre's fiscal deficit narrowed by 44.75% YoY to Rs. 1.71 lakh crore in Q3FY11, as against fiscal deficit to the tune of Rs. 3.1 lakh crore in Q3 FY10, on the back of better-than-expected revenue from the sale of spectrum and robust tax collections. Expenditure by the Central Government rose by 11.21% to Rs. 7.86 lakh crore in Q3FY11, as against Rs. 7.07 lakh crore in Q3FY10. At Rs. 1.71 lakh crore, the fiscal deficit in Apr-Dec'10 period amounted to 44.9% of the Budget estimate of Rs. 3.81 lakh crore for entire FY11. The Government has collected Rs. 3.91 lakh crore in taxes in 9MFY11 period, which was 73.2% of the budgetary target for FY11. Furthermore, non-tax revenue in Apr-Dec'10 period stood at Rs. 1.93 lakh crore, higher than the Budget estimate for FY11. However, despite the higher realization from the sale of spectrum for high-speed telephony and broadband services, the government expects the fiscal deficit to be contained at the same level as its Budget estimate.
Regards,
Asim Mohapatra
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