Peninsula signed land deals worth `5.5bn (aiming at ~`25bn in 12-18 months) over 9MFY11. We expect the company to seal some major deals in the next few months. New project launches took place in Nasik and Goa, at higher-than-estimated prices; older projects are in the final handover phase. We roll over our NAV and target price to Mar '12e (from Sep '11e), to `81/share.
n Results review. Revenue largely arose from Peninsula Business Park (~60%) and Peninsula TechnoPark (~30%). Given few land/ project purchases, gross debt increased (net D/E: 0.18x).
n `5.5bn land deals signed. Five additional deals were signed in 3QFY11 - three city-centric, one township and one villa development. As it continues with its asset-light model, with funds coming in from sold properties, Peninsula is likely to complete some large-ticket deals in coming months.
n Operational update. Peninsula launched its Goa & Nasik properties where construction commenced in Oct '10 at prices higher than we estimated. We expect new property launches (NapeanSea Road, Mumbai; Hinjewadi, Pune; and JP Nagar, Bangalore) from 1QFY12.
n Valuation and risks. We roll over our NAV and price target to Mar '12e, to `81 vs. `78 for Sep '11e. At current market price, the stock trades at 0.9x Mar '12e P/BV.
Risks: Overvalued land purchases, delay in receivables.
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
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