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Tuesday, August 31, 2010

[T.S.R:15374] Understanding And Overcoming Fears (CONTD.)

------------------------------------------------------
Message for the day 01-09-2010
----------------------------------------------------------
The one who is free from wasteful words is the one who can be light.

Projection: Sometimes when something only needs a few words to explain, we continue to speak and expand on it for a long time. We actually use more words than necessary thinking we are clarifying things. We give the justification to ourselves that it is necessary or the other person does not understand. These words sometimes disturb the other person and spoil our relationships too.

Solution: We constantly need to pay attention to the words that we speak. We need to check if we are using any more words than we actually need to. When we remind ourselves of a simple slogan, "speak less, speak softly and speak sweetly", our words will never be those that disturb others. We will then be able to maintain our own lightness and that of others too.

----------------------------------------------------------
Soul Sustenance 01-09-2010
----------------------------------------------------------

Understanding And Overcoming Fears (cont.)

Listed below are some of our common fears:

• Dying
• Getting ill
• The unknown
• Loneliness
• Other people
• Authority
• Being rejected
• Being hurt
• Failure
• Change
• The future
• Being
• Being free
• Thinking and being in a different way
• Losing control
• Dreaming and making our dreams real

From these fears many other fears and blockages emerge.


Om shanti.
 

In Godly Service.
Sincerely,
Anchal Mishra,
Stock Trader/Freelance Fund Manager,
Cash & Derivatives (Indian Equity Market).
+919335368458
Lucknow , ( U.P.)

[T.S.R:15374] 01.09.10 NIFTY MAGIC NUMBERS (PIVOT POINTS / WWW.NIFTYVIEWS.COM)

01.09.10 NIFTY MAGIC NUMBERS (PIVOT POINTS / WWW.NIFTYVIEWS.COM)


Nifty EOD Chart 31 Aug 2010
Powered by : http://www.niftyviews.com/

:agl Nifty Future Magic Numbers : :agl
5400-5422-5445-5466
Support : 5422.
Resistance:5445
Above 5445 caution for short.
Below 5422 caution for long.

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[T.S.R:15372] Karur Vysa Bank To Declare Bonus, Rights

Karur Vysya Bank Ltd has informed BSE that a meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank will be held on September 07, 2010, inter alia, to consider the issue of further Shares / augment capital including Bonus and Rights Issue.

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[T.S.R:15371] EOD 31 AUG 2010 UPLOADED - ROCKING NIFTY CALLS 190 PTS MADE FOR AUG SERIES

EOD DATA UPLOADED AT : http://tapricos.blogspot.com/
 
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[T.S.R:15369] Bombay : Is This The End Of Euphoria?



Bombay-Is This The End?
Euphoria, Fads and Mania
By all standards of comparison Bombay is over-valued. So much so that we have managements that misuse shareholder money for their own particular agenda-RIL, Sterlite are the front-runners. Worst are the fund managers, market analysts and the hordes of small investors who believe that Enemy neighbours like China and Pakistan can be wished away, separatists in Kashmir and North East can be ignored, and the 6-7 States roiled by the Naxal-Maoist insurgencies are not a part of India.

We analyze two peculiar investment phenomena in the Indian market and the propensity to ignore related potential pitfalls—(1) the EV (Embedded Value) syndrome, which is the market's tendency to assign exaggerated value to future assets and (2) the PG (Perpetual Growth) syndrome, which is the market's tendency to extrapolate a benign environment and resultant earnings for a long period while ignoring potential negative changes to the macro-environment.

Past Behaviour Reflects In Today's Trends

We look at two peculiar investment phenomena in the Indian market based on our past experience of dealing with stocks, which have been symbolic of the market's exuberance at certain periods in the past. We find these relevant in the current market given rich valuations in many stocks and think investors may want to benefit from our learnings—gleaned from our past association with these stocks.

Embedded Value Never Gets Unlocked

We have seen the market ascribing inexplicable value to future assets of Indian companies, especially in 2HCY07. We see the same phenomenon currently, albeit to a much lesser degree. We would place stocks such as Cairn India, Jindal Steel and Power (JSPL), Reliance Industries (RIL), Reliance Power and some of the new merchant power stocks in this category.

Assuming Perpetual Double Digit Growth Is A Myth

We have seen the market ascribing very high multiples to earnings of companies under the impression that earnings will continue to grow strongly in perpetuity. This notion ignores potential risks to earnings and consequent de-ratings if earnings fail to meet with street expectations. We see this currently in certain automobiles, consumer, industrial (particularly, BHEL), media and of course, telecom stocks that have got re-rated of late.

Can The Analyst Crystal Ball Give The Wrong Image?

We do not have a crystal ball to divine future oil and gas reserves of E&P companies or the capability to foresee risks to earnings of high-growth companies. However, we do believe investors can avoid expensive mistakes (as in 2HCY07) by (1) doing simple reverse valuation exercises for 'embedded' asset companies to understand the implied value of such future assets and (2) re-visiting the macro-environment, which supports a high-growth company's earnings.

Finally, we would caution against the street's use of (1) improper valuation methodologies and (2) high multiples at near-peak margins and earnings.

Safe Harbor Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
 
Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
 
 
 

 
 


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[T.S.R:15368] Thematic Funds aka Infra Funds, Fail To Deliver



Thematic funds, particularly infrastructure funds, may soon be losing their charm, say analysts monitoring the funds' performance in the last three years.


Infrastructure funds that were a big draw and showed outstanding gains between 2004 and 2008, are now disappointing investors. A thematic fund by definition invests predominantly in securities representing a particular investment strategy.


"The reason why infra funds did exceptionally well in the pre-crisis period was because they were bullish on realty. Most of the infra funds focussed heavily on the realty sector which saw a 100 per cent increase in a single year. They had invested in all the 'biggies'.


Therefore, when the sector experienced a fall, the funds also followed suit." says Mr Hiren Dhakan, Associate Fund Manager, Bonanza Portfolio Ltd. Over the last three years, these funds have given average annual returns of around 35-40 per cent; earlier their annualised average returns were about 67 per cent.


Little interest seen


As of May 2010, there were about 140 funds which invest in broadly 25 themes in India. Fifteen of them are infrastructure funds. "Infra funds are the only thematic funds which are of any meaningful scale. Other thematic funds such as Canara Robeco F.O.R.C.E Fund, DSP Blackrock Natural Resources and New Energy fund, Fortis Sustainable Development Fund do exist, but they are few and far in between and are not as big as the infra funds." said Mr Dhirendra Kumar, CEO, Value Research.


Even though the returns from infrastructure funds are higher than that from the other thematic funds, investors are fast losing confidence in them as the returns have been declining over the years.


"The infra space has, of late, seen very little interest. There have not been many applications for these funds. ICICI, Tata, Birla Sun Life are some of the fund houseswhose infra funds have shown relatively good performance; but most of the other infra funds have not done well." says Mr Dhakan.


While some fund managers consider pharma and banking funds as thematic funds, analysts prefer to categorise them as sectoral funds, and not thematic funds.


Post-March 2009, banking funds gave very high returns - annual average of 128 per cent, because of the "strong and supportive policies implemented by the Reserve Bank of India" according to a report on thematic funds by CRISIL. But the question whether these can be called thematic funds remains.


"Infrastructure is a loosely defined category. In the BSE Sensex, almost 70 per cent of the stocks would fall in the category of infrastructure companies if we exclude IT, pharma and FMCG. Thus, thematic funds are different from sectoral funds. Which is why one cannot compare infra funds with banking funds or pharma funds, which are largely sectoral funds." says Mr Dhirendra Kumar.


Volatility high


Thematic funds are known for their volatility as their investments are very narrow. Since the investment is focussed on only one sector, the risk is higher. In good times, it will translate into higher returns; but in bad times, it will lead to, possibly, even bigger losses.


Therefore, thematic funds structurally attract investors who are aggressive and are exposed to higher risk. "Thematic funds are very aggressive and based on very precise themes. So, investors must keep this in mind and realise the high-risk factor. And if there really is an appetite for risk, then why can't investors go for mid-cap and small-cap funds? There, the investors will get a wider choice and also there is higher stability in the returns of these funds." says Mr Dhakan


According to analysts, one of the drawbacks of infrastructure funds is that they are only focussed on the construction and realty sectors.


What they need to do is to diversify their portfolios into other infrastructure companies such as cement, utilities and energy."If you are looking at long-term systematic returns, then investors need to diversify. Cement stocks, in particular, have a much lower beta and, therefore should do well." concludes Mr Dhakan.



Safe Harbor Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
 
Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
 
 
 

 
 


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[T.S.R:15370] TSR NIFTY PERFORMANCE SHEET FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST 2010



PREMIUM NIFTY CALLS
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PERFORMANCE SHEET FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST 2010

DATE
ACTION
NAME
CMP 1ST LOT
CMP 2ND LOT
SL
TARGET
POINTS COVERED
30.07.10
BUY
NIFTY
5395

5382
5410-5430
+10








02.08.10
SELL
NIFTY
5405
5415
5428
5380-5353
-44








03.08.10
BUY
NIFTY
5434
5425
5418
5452-5477
+0








04.08.10
SELL
NIFTY
5432

5454

+9

SELL
NIFTY
5434

5454

+8

BUY
NIFTY
5433

5425

+5








06.08.10
BUY
NIFTY
5460-62
5448
5438
5475-5494
+11








09.08.10
BUY
NIFTY
5445-5446

5424
5470-5477
+30








10.08.10
BUY
NIFTY
5464

5444

+10

BUY
NIFTY
5445-5446

5436
5462-5477
+17

BUY
NIFTY
5454

5442

+10








11.08.10
BUY
NIFTY
5450
5438
5425
5470-5488
-18








12.08.10
BUY
NIFTY
5377
5368
5353
5393-5409
+35








13.08.10
BUY
NIFTY
5442
5434
5422
5458-5468
+21








16.08.10
SELL
NIFTY
5462
5474
5482
5448-5438
+24

BUY
NIFTY
5440

5432
5454-5466
-8








17.08.10
BUY
NIFTY
5435

5417
5454-5466
+0

BUY
NIFTY
5412-5413

5400
5428-5444
+14








18.08.10
BUY
NIFTY
5427
5415
5388
5453
+26








19.08.10
BUY
NIFTY
5515

5492
5544-5555
+13

BUY
NIFTY
5500

5490
5544-5555
+29








20.08.10
SELL
NIFTY
5517
5533
5555
5486-5460
+0

BUY
NIFTY
5524

5508
5542-5555
+0








23.08.10
BUY
NIFTY
5530

5512
5548-5562
+3

BUY
NIFTY
5522

5510

+17








26.08.10
BUY
NIFTY
5496
5488
5477
5518-5533
-29

BUY
NIFTY
5480-82

5066

+17








TOTAL POINTS COVERED : +210 POINTS

IF TRADED IN 1 LOT MINI NIFTY THEN PROFIT = 20*210=4,200/- (PER LOT)

IF TRADED IN 1 LOT NIFTY THEN PROFIT = 50*210=10,500/- (PER LOT)

CHARGES 3,700/- FOR 2 MONTHS
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