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Tuesday, June 30, 2009

[T.S.R:10163] A good news, Our National Anthem has been selected as world's best national anthem by UNESCO. pass it 2 all Indians,Proud 2 b an INDIAN..

 A good news, Our National Anthem has been selected as world's best national anthem by UNESCO. pass it 2 all Indians,Proud 2 b an INDIAN..

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[T.S.R:10162] World Wealth Report - 2009



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Sameer

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[T.S.R:10160] Day trader



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you will never grow".
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[T.S.R:10159] R-Power in talks to sell 15% to foreign investor


 

403695569_02ba524596_m.jpg

Reliance Power Ltd (R-Power), part of the Reliance Anil Dhirubhai Ambani (ADA) group, is in talks with five leading global power companies to sell 15 per cent equity stake in the company.

Anil_Ambani.jpg
 
 

Preliminary talks have started with three Chinese power companies, which include China Light and Power Holdings (CLP), and French and Canadian companies.

Sources said Anil Ambani was in China last week to hold discussions with Chinese power companies for a possible stake sale. The company is willing to place the equity to one or two power companies.

R-Power needs over Rs 70,000 crore to develop 17 medium and large power projects — either directly or through subsidiaries — with a combined planned installed capacity of 33,480 Mw.

A 15 per cent equity dilution would bring in around Rs 6,000 crore at the company's current market price.

The promoters hold 84.78 per cent in the company and the public 15.22 per cent following a mega initial public offer last year that netted the company approximately Rs 10,000 crore

R-Power had also tried to divest 10 per cent to a strategic partner two years ago, but the deal did not materialise.

Asked about the new deal, a Reliance ADA group spokesperson declined to comment. CLP's India managing director Rajiv Mishra, however, denied discussions with R-Power.

R-Power has identified projects in western India (12,220 Mw), northern India (9,080 Mw), north-eastern India (4,220 Mw), southern India (4,000 Mw) and eastern India (3,960 Mw).

Among these are eight coal-fired projects (18,580 Mw) to be fuelled by reserves from captive mines and supplies from India and abroad, two gas-fired projects (10,280 Mw) to be fuelled primarily by reserves from the Krishna Godavari Basin off the east coast of India, and seven hydroelectric projects (4,620 Mw), three of these in Arunachal Pradesh and one in Uttarakhand.

Three of these projects are Ultra Mega Power Projects, which were put up for bidding by the government as a means of bridging the growing power deficit. These include power plants of 3,960 Mw each at Sasan in Madhya Pradesh and Tilaiya in Jharkhand and a 4,000 Mw plant at Krishnapatnam in Andhra Pradesh.

 
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ನರೇನ್ ಬಾಳಿಗಾ

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[T.S.R:10158] INTRADAY CALLS FOR 01.07.09-www.Niftyviews.com

 





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[T.S.R:10157] Tata Steel

 
Tata Steel - Consolidated FY09 Result Update; Difficult terrain ; HOLD; Target : Rs409 - Emkay

 

Tata Steel Ltd

 

Difficult terrain


HOLD

 

CMP: Rs397                               Target Price: Rs409


Tata Steel reported 4QFY09 and FY09 consolidated results, which were below our estimates. Net sales stood at Rs264.3bn (yoy down 26.7%, qoq down 20.4%), EBITDA stood at Rs330mn (yoy down 99.3%, qoq down 98.8%) and adjusted net loss stood at Rs10.4bn (yoy profit 15.2bn, qoq profit 9.5bn). During the quarter, the company reported restructuring/impairment cost of Rs40.9bn. The average realization for Corus for 4QFY09 stood at USD750/t and average cost of production stood at USD835/t, implying a negative EBITDA of USD85/t. As per the management, the prices in Europe have bottomed out and there may be technical restocking which may push up the prices. At the same time, Corus is also taking various measures to reduce cost of production, the company has a target to reduce cost by around USD1bn in FY10. During the quarter, there was inventory write down to the tune of Rs7.4bn in Corus and other subsidiaries. The outlook on Indian operations is optimistic and management has guided for 20-25% volume growth in FY10. However, the outlook for Tata Steel UK operations for FY10 seems to be a bit uncertain. If the company is unable to achieve the expected cost savings then there may be EBITDA loss in FY10 as well for Corus. Tata Steel has reported actuarial loss on pension fund of Rs54.9bn which has been adjusted through reserves. Currently, Tata Steel has consolidated net debt of USD9.89bn. We are revising our EPS estimates down for FY10 from Rs60 to Rs38.8 and for FY11 from Rs103 to Rs89. At the CMP of Rs397, the stock is trading at 10.2x FY10E EPS of Rs38.8 and at 4.5x FY11E EPS of Rs89. On EV/EBITDA basis the stock is trading at 6.4x FY10E EV/EBITDA and at 4.3x FY11E EV/EBITDA; while on P/B basis, the stock is trading at 1.47x FY10E book value and at 1.16x FY11E book value. We maintain HOLD on the stock with revised target price of Rs409 (1.2x FY11E book value) (Previous target Rs489).

 


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[T.S.R:10156] Chemicals Sector

 
Chemicals Sector Update ; Weakness in June'09, Is it temporary? - Emkay

 

Chemicals update

 

Weakness in June'09, Is it temporary?


After an attractive recovery in prices and demand in Apr-May'09 period, June'09 witnessed weakness in prices. Products reporting fall in prices increased sharply to 14 in June'09 from 7 in May'09 with the average fall in prices at 16.4% (5.1% in May'09). Out of 33 products, only 5 products reported increase in prices with an average increase of 4.7%. Imports remained active in May-June'09 keeping the domestic prices under pressure. Sectors like textile and paints saw weak demand while agro chemicals and pharma sector saw boost in demand. Stocking at dealers level has come down due to uncertainty before the budget. Various industry players expect peak excise duty to increase from the present 8% to 12%. We expect demand from construction, paints etc to gain momentum from August'09 resulting in an improved price scenario.       

 

Company

CMP

TP

Reco

CFL

192

263

Buy

DFPCL

94

103

Hold

GNFC

88

76

Buy

GSFC

176

107

Hold

TCL

225

192

Reduce

Prices as on 29th June 2009

 

 


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[T.S.R:10155] Glenmark Pharma

 
Glenmark Pharma Q4FY09 Result Update ; Disappointing numbers, one offs impacted further ; Accumulate ; Target : Rs241 - Emkay


Glenmark Pharma

 

Disappointing numbers, one offs impacted further


Accumulate

 

CMP: Rs230                  Target Price: Rs241


Glenmark posted disappointing set of numbers, significantly below our/market estimates. Revenue fell by 14% to Rs 4911mn because of absence of NCE income (Rs609mn in Q4FY08) and a base business decline across all segment (decline by 4%), except its domestic formulation business (grew by 12%). Operating margins were affected because of a) Inventory write-down for the US and LatAm market (Rs700mn), b) Closure of operations in Australia and China (Rs600mn) and c) A charge back of Rs1.17bn on account of price erosion in Oxcarbazepine. This has resulted 21 percentage point contraction in EBIDTA margins to 17.7% in Q4FY09. Pressure in top-line and operating margins coupled with higher interest cost (up by 364%) has led to 96% decline in APAT to Rs91mn in Q4FY09. For FY09, Revenue was up by 6% to Rs20.9bn. excluding NCE income, revenue grew by 21%. Adjusted EBIDTA for FY09 de-grew by 27% to Rs5850mn. APAT de-grew by 55% to Rs2830mn. On the back of lower than expected performance, we have downgraded our FY10E earning estimates by 25% to Rs12.8 and introduced our FY11E earning estimates (EPS of Rs17.2 for base business). We are positive on the outcome of Melogliptin Phase IIb clinical data and have revised the NPV of R&D assets from Rs44 per share to Rs69 per share. However, we feel that monetizing of R&D opportunity in the near term will remain a key challenge for the company. Maintain Accumulate rating with a price target of Rs241 (10x FY11E EPS ex. R&D NPV). Positive data for Oglemilast and out-licensing deal for Melogliptin will be key upsides.

 

 


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Monday, June 29, 2009

[T.S.R:10154] Market Morning - 30 Jun 2009

Subject: Market Morning - 30 Jun 2009


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[T.S.R:10153] Derivatives - 30 Jun 2009

Subject: Derivatives - 30 Jun 2009


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[T.S.R:10152] F&O Scanner - 30 Jun 2009

Subject: F&O Scanner - 30 Jun 2009


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[T.S.R:10151] India Daily: New Release - Economy: FY2010 Union Budget: Strong on paper; Results - Hidalco, Havells; Update - Unitech

What's Inside

New Release

Economy: FY2010 Union Budget: Strong on paper

· 

Headline fiscal numbers may be positive but follow-through action more relevant

· 

Tax cuts roll-back, asset sales and licensing revenues to support inclusive growth

· 

Key expectations and impact on market and sectors

· 

Market is fully valued; hence, recommend defensive stance

Results

Hindalco: Novelis reports steady earnings

· 

Steady earnings in a weak market

· 

Strong EBITDA improvement guidance for 1QFY2010

· 

Segmental analysis - North American and Asian markets see growth

· 

Cash Neutral - Cash neutral for the last 9 months and minimal repayments

Havells: Cost control measures improve margins

· 

4QFY09 adjusted PAT above estimates

· 

Restructuring and one-time costs hit FY2009 PAT

· 

Key concerns - demand slowdown in Europe and cash constraints

Updates

Unitech: QIP positive for Unitech, retain SELL on expensive valuations

· 

Funding concerns recede post QIP; dilution of 16.8%

· 

Focus to shift to valuations and execution; stock looks expensive

· 

Retain SELL and revise target price to Rs60/share; retain revenue, volume estimates



click here to open attached file for further details.


Please feel free to get back to us for any queries.

Regards,
Kotak Institutional Equities Research
Kotak Securities
3rd floor, Bakhtawar, 229 Nariman Point, Mumbai 400 021, India.
Tel: Board (+91)(22) 5634-1100
Fax: (+91)(22) 2288-6453
Email: kotak.research@kotak.com

 


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[T.S.R:10150] Morning Insight - 30 Jun 2009

Contents in today's MORNING INSIGHT
• Economic News
• Corporate News

Initiating Coverage: Time Technoplast
• We are initiating coverage on Time Technoplast (TTL). TTL is the market leader in India in the polymer-based industrial packaging industry with a market share of more than 75% and it has a technical collaboration with Mauser Germany.
• At CMP of Rs.40 it is trading at 8.9x Cons. FY10E EPS of Rs.4.5. We are positive on the medium to long term growth prospects of TTL.
• We are initiating coverage with a BUY recommendation on TTL with a price target of Rs.60 which provides 50% upside potential form current levels.

Result Update: India Cements
• Revenue growth was inline with our estimates while operating margins were lower than our estimates
• Net profit growth was impacted by lower dispatch growth as well as decline in the operating margins
• At current market price of Rs 138, stock is trading at 8.3x P/E and 5.6x EV/EBITDA multiples for FY10 respectively.
• We revise our estimates and arrive at a revised price target of Rs 123 as against Rs 109 earlier on FY10 estimates. However we continue to maintain negative stance on the cement sector and a REDUCE recommendation on the stock.

Result Update: Unity Infraprojects
• Unity Infraprojects revenues reported 21% and 33% growth for Q4FY09 and full year FY09 vis-à-vis same period last year. This was led by strong order book.
• Operating margin performance was inline with our estimates and Q4FY09 and full year FY09 operating margins stood at 12.9% and 12.6% respectively.
• Net profits reported an increase of 4% and 16% for Q4FY09 and full year FY09 as against same period last year.
• We introduce FY11 estimates for the company based on future visibility on revenues. We also revise our FY10 estimates upwards.
• At current price of Rs 337, stock is trading at 5.6x and 5.3x P/E multiples for FY10 and FY11 respectively. We value the core business of the company at 7x FY10 P/E multiples as against 4x assumed earlier due to improving business scenario. We thus arrive at a price target of Rs 419 on FY10 estimates as against Rs 227 earlier. We continue to maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock.

Result Update: JBF Industries
• JBF reported excellent FY09 results which are significantly above our estimates on the profitability front
• Revise FY10E EPS upward to Rs.36.0 (Rs.32.0 earlier)
• We are positive on long term growth prospects of JBF due to strong demand for its products like chips, POY, pet grade chips and polyester films
• Tax free dividend yield of 6.4% (Rs.5 per share)
• Due to very attractive valuations (2.2x FY10E earnings) and 54% upside potential form the current levels we continue to recommend BUY on JBF with revised price target of Rs.120 (Rs.100 earlier)

Result Update: Numeric Power Systems
• Numeric reported excellent set of Q4FY09 and FY09 results which are above our estimates on the profitability front
• Tax free dividend of Rs.5 per share
• Revise FY10E EPS to Rs.80.0 (Rs.75.0 earlier)
• Due to 34% upside potential we continue to recommend BUY with revised price target of Rs.500 (Rs.450 earlier)


Bulk deals
Gainers & Losers
Forthcoming events


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[T.S.R:10149] Trading Tool - 30 Jun 2009

Subject: Trading Tool - 30 Jun 2009


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[T.S.R:10148] BAAJ NAAZARE FOR WEEK 29.06.09 TO 03.07.09- OUR STAR PERFORMER'S LAST WEEK WERE IDBI,Unitech,RCOM,Exide,IFCI........

Subject: BAAJ NAAZARE FOR WEEK 29.06.09 TO 03.07.09- OUR STAR PERFORMER'S LAST WEEK WERE IDBI,Unitech,RCOM,Exide,IFCI........



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[T.S.R:10147] MOSt Market Action 30th June 2009

Motilal-Oswal---Wealth-Management-Logo-(outdoor),Motilal-Oswal---Wealth-Management-Logo-(outdoor)
 


MOSt Market Action

30-Jun-2009

Singapore Nifty
(9:15 IST)

4427

UP

38

Short Term Trend

UP

Reversal Level  

NIFTY Futures

Sell Below

4150

SENSEX

14000

 

Likely Nifty (Fut)
range for the day

4375 - 4475

Intermediate Term
Trend

UP

Reversal Levels

NIFTY Futures

Sell Below

4100

SENSEX

13500

 Positional Calls

 BUY

 SELL

 SCRIP

CMP

TARGET

STOP LOSS

SCRIP

CMP

TARGET

STOP LOSS

 Nifty Running Call (Initiated @ 4374)

4,389

4,800

4,150

 

 

 Nifty Running Strategy (Bull Spread)

Buy Nifty JUL 4400 CE @ 178
Sell Nifty JUL 4500 CE @ 133

 

 

 

 

 Investment Ideas

 BUY

 EXIT

 SCRIP

CMP

MBP

SCRIP

CMP

MSP

Mahindra & Mahindra

704

720

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Intra-Day

Support/Resistance Levels

Prev Close

Close

Change

% Chng

S2

S1

R1

R2

Sensex

14,765

14,786

21

0.14%

14,539

14,662

14,932

15,079

Nifty

4,376

4,391

15

0.34%

4,305

4,348

4,437

4,483

Nifty Futures

4,384

4,389

5

0.11%

4,293

4,341

4,442

4,495

 

Sensex opened flat & remained subdued for while before rallying to 14,950 levels, sharply corrected from there during last half hour of the day.

Since the last 4 days Sensex has been making a higher top higher bottom formation on the daily charts.

Sensex today has made an attempt to cross the 61.8% retracement level of the fall from 15,600-14,000.



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