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Thursday, September 3, 2009

[T.S.R:10826] view on gold n crude

Bullion

Gold and Silver futures touched respective 3-month highs on Comex in a tremendously choppy market on Wednesday as the dollar rallied against the euro initially on safe-haven buying only to give up its gains mid-session. Both the commodities achieved respective targets of $963 and $15.35 in the process. Gold managed to close at $978 while silver closed much higher at $15.40.

The euro recovered from the hammering it got on Tuesday to close relatively higher as investors adjusted their positions ahead of the ECB meeting on Thursday. It is expected that the ECB will keep its minimum bid rate unchanged at 1.00%.

Among other data releases on Thursday, both the Jobless Claims and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI are expected to be negative for bullion.

Gold and silver still look positive above respective supports at $970 and $15.20 and an extended upside rally till $986 and $15.65 looks possible in the short-term.

Crude OIL

Crude oil futures continued to trade lower, touching the estimated target of $67 before closing slightly higher at $68 in a highly volatile trading day for the energy complex and crude oil in particular.

The EIA inventory data was released on Wednesday. It showed a smaller decline of 0.4 mnbls for crude stocks as against an expected decline of 0.6 mnbls. Distillate stocks rose by a more-than-expected 1.2 mnbls against a forecast of 0.6 mnbls buildup while gasoline stocks fell by a huge 3.0 mbnls against expectations of 0.9 mnbls decline.

Crude continues to look negative with nearmost resistance at $69.50 and a lower target of $65.50 could be seen if it breaks short-term support at $67.


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